Historically, Bloomberg Economics has used a recession probability model that incorporates factors like housing permits, consumer sentiment, corporate profit outlooks, and Treasury yield gaps. It doesn’t always work. For example, in October 2022, they projected a 100% chance of a U.S. recession by October 2023, driven by aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, tightening financial conditions, and persistent inflation.

Here we go again. Consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, Bloomberg notes. Many consumers think we’ll see a recession later this year. That pessimism has more than half of consumers delaying major life plans due to uncertainty over the economy and the consequences of Trump’s tariff threats. Of those, about a third said they were putting off buying a home while one in six have postponed education plans—and one in eight have pushed back retirement.

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the prospects for the economy with finance expert Aquiles Larrea.

When the Russo-Ukrainian War began in February 2022, the U.S. and the West promised to help Ukraine win. But they only provided enough weapons for parity, turning the conflict into a meat grinder of attrition. And the Biden Administration didn’t just give money and arms to Ukraine—they were loans. Now that Ukraine has clearly lost to Russia, you’d think Russia would ask for money as reparations, but it’s not. Instead, in an act that would have even shamed the British Empire at the height of its colonial era, the Trump Administration is calling in the U.S. debt by forcing Ukraine to turn over a substantial percentage of its mineral wealth, crippling the Ukrainian economy during its postwar reconstruction phase.

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the bizarre and embarrassing specter of a superpower shaking down its defeated ally.

When German politics shift to the Right, the world gets nervous. German’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party came in second in parliamentary elections, largely on the strength of German anger over the economy and anti-migration nativist sentiment. Has AfD peaked out? Does this presage results in France and other European countries? How should we feel and respond to the right of the German Right?

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the AfD’s victory in Germany.

Even before the election, The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times read Trump's polls and censored their own Kamala endorsements. Then the tech bros who run social media donated to his inaugural. ABC News and Meta decided to punt in court and pay out big defamation claims Trump would probably have lost--were they bribes?Is Trump's bullying chilling the media? It certainly looks like it. MSNBC has canceled Joy Reid's primetime TV show. In another indication that journalists are under siege, a Mississippi judge ordered a newspaper to take down an editorial.On "The TMI Show" Ted Rall and Manila Chan, fresh from CPAC--where the big names didn't bother to engage reporters--discuss the muzzling of the news media, the watchdog of democracy.

Moral injury, or the deep distress that can emerge when you feel that your values have been violated, either by yourself or someone else, is about to be added to the American Psychiatric Association’s D.S.M.-5, psychiatry’s classification of mental health conditions, to include the notion that moral problems could contribute to a mental health condition..

The resulting feelings of powerlessness, guilt and shame can lead to mental health problems like anxiety, depression and even suicidal behavior.

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss Moral Injury. What is it? Is it a real mental phenomenon? Can you avoid it? What can you do if you suffer from it?

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered Pentagon officials to draw up plans to cut 8% from the military over each of the next five years, the most radical attempt to rein in such spending ever.There would be 17 exceptions to the proposed cuts, including military operations at the southern border. Cuts to defense will face opposition in Congress, where lawmakers focus on budget cuts that could affect their districts.On "The TMI Show" Ted Rall and guest cohost Robby West discuss this shocking attempt to co-opt anti-militarism as an issue away from the Democrats.

The United States and Russia have moved toward a total reset in Riyadh, agreeing to work together on ending the Russo-Ukrainian war, financial investment, eliminating sanctions and re-establishing normal relations. The meeting was striking after three years of American efforts to isolate Moscow. After more than four hours of talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that both sides had agreed to work on a peace settlement for Ukraine as well as to explore “the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians,” both geopolitically and economically.

“We weren’t just listening to each other, but we heard each other,” Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said.

The meeting signaled Trump’s intention to reverse the Biden administration’s approach, which focused on sanctions, isolation and sending weapons to Ukraine.

What's the next step? What will peace look like? What role will Ukraine itself have in the negotiations? What will it take Europe to sign off? Do they have to?

On “The TMI Show” hosts Ted Rall and Manila Chan talk to Ukrainian whistleblower Andrei Telizhenko about what comes next.

Five years ago this week, the United States entered an unprecedented national lockdown. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted the government, businesses and educational institutions to shut down. The streets of major cities turned into ghost towns. Confused, traumatized and terrified of a fatal respiratory virus whose means of transmission was not clearly understood until later, Americans hid in their homes while over a million of their fellow citizens died, many of them alone in terrible agony.

The novel coronavirus struck as the United States was experiencing three major societal trends: a growing divide between Left and Right, decreasing trust in institutions and a splintering of the information environment.

Three-quarters of Americans say the pandemic took a toll on their own lives. 27% say they were traumatized. On “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan ask: What are the longstanding implications? Have we learned anything? What would we do different?