Historically, Bloomberg Economics has used a recession probability model that incorporates factors like housing permits, consumer sentiment, corporate profit outlooks, and Treasury yield gaps. It doesn’t always work. For example, in October 2022, they projected a 100% chance of a U.S. recession by October 2023, driven by aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, tightening financial conditions, and persistent inflation.

Here we go again. Consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, Bloomberg notes. Many consumers think we’ll see a recession later this year. That pessimism has more than half of consumers delaying major life plans due to uncertainty over the economy and the consequences of Trump’s tariff threats. Of those, about a third said they were putting off buying a home while one in six have postponed education plans—and one in eight have pushed back retirement.

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the prospects for the economy with finance expert Aquiles Larrea.

When the Russo-Ukrainian War began in February 2022, the U.S. and the West promised to help Ukraine win. But they only provided enough weapons for parity, turning the conflict into a meat grinder of attrition. And the Biden Administration didn’t just give money and arms to Ukraine—they were loans. Now that Ukraine has clearly lost to Russia, you’d think Russia would ask for money as reparations, but it’s not. Instead, in an act that would have even shamed the British Empire at the height of its colonial era, the Trump Administration is calling in the U.S. debt by forcing Ukraine to turn over a substantial percentage of its mineral wealth, crippling the Ukrainian economy during its postwar reconstruction phase.

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the bizarre and embarrassing specter of a superpower shaking down its defeated ally.

When German politics shift to the Right, the world gets nervous. German’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party came in second in parliamentary elections, largely on the strength of German anger over the economy and anti-migration nativist sentiment. Has AfD peaked out? Does this presage results in France and other European countries? How should we feel and respond to the right of the German Right?

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the AfD’s victory in Germany.