• “The Industrial Explosion” by rosehadshar, Tom Davidson
    Jul 7 2025
    Summary

    To quickly transform the world, it's not enough for AI to become super smart (the "intelligence explosion").

    AI will also have to turbocharge the physical world (the "industrial explosion"). Think robot factories building more and better robot factories, which build more and better robot factories, and so on.

    The dynamics of the industrial explosion has gotten remarkably little attention.

    This post lays out how the industrial explosion could play out, and how quickly it might happen.

    We think the industrial explosion will unfold in three stages:

    1. AI-directed human labour, where AI-directed human labourers drive productivity gains in physical capabilities.
      1. We argue this could increase physical output by 10X within a few years.
    2. Fully autonomous robot factories, where AI-directed robots (and other physical actuators) replace human physical labour.
      1. We argue that, with current physical technology and full automation of cognitive labour, this physical infrastructure [...]
    ---

    Outline:

    (00:10) Summary

    (01:43) Intro

    (04:14) The industrial explosion will start after the intelligence explosion, and will proceed more slowly

    (06:50) Three stages of industrial explosion

    (07:38) AI-directed human labour

    (09:20) Fully autonomous robot factories

    (12:04) Nanotechnology

    (13:06) How fast could an industrial explosion be?

    (13:41) Initial speed

    (16:21) Acceleration

    (17:38) Maximum speed

    (20:01) Appendices

    (20:05) How fast could robot doubling times be initially?

    (27:47) How fast could robot doubling times accelerate?

    ---

    First published:
    June 26th, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Na2CBmNY7otypEmto/the-industrial-explosion

    ---



    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    ---

    Images from the article:

    Show More Show Less
    32 mins
  • “Race and Gender Bias As An Example of Unfaithful Chain of Thought in the Wild” by Adam Karvonen, Sam Marks
    Jul 3 2025

    Summary: We found that LLMs exhibit significant race and gender bias in realistic hiring scenarios, but their chain-of-thought reasoning shows zero evidence of this bias. This serves as a nice example of a 100% unfaithful CoT "in the wild" where the LLM strongly suppresses the unfaithful behavior. We also find that interpretability-based interventions succeeded while prompting failed, suggesting this may be an example of interpretability being the best practical tool for a real world problem.

    For context on our paper, the tweet thread is here and the paper is here.

    Context: Chain of Thought Faithfulness Chain of Thought (CoT) monitoring has emerged as a popular research area in AI safety. The idea is simple - have the AIs reason in English text when solving a problem, and monitor the reasoning for misaligned behavior. For example, OpenAI recently published a paper on using CoT monitoring to detect reward hacking during [...]



    ---

    Outline:

    (00:49) Context: Chain of Thought Faithfulness

    (02:26) Our Results

    (04:06) Interpretability as a Practical Tool for Real-World Debiasing

    (06:10) Discussion and Related Work

    ---

    First published:
    July 2nd, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/me7wFrkEtMbkzXGJt/race-and-gender-bias-as-an-example-of-unfaithful-chain-of

    ---



    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.


    Show More Show Less
    8 mins
  • “The best simple argument for Pausing AI?” by Gary Marcus
    Jul 3 2025
    Not saying we should pause AI, but consider the following argument:

    1. Alignment without the capacity to follow rules is hopeless. You can’t possibly follow laws like Asimov's Laws (or better alternatives to them) if you can’t reliably learn to abide by simple constraints like the rules of chess.
    2. LLMs can’t reliably follow rules. As discussed in Marcus on AI yesterday, per data from Mathieu Acher, even reasoning models like o3 in fact empirically struggle with the rules of chess. And they do this even though they can explicit explain those rules (see same article). The Apple “thinking” paper, which I have discussed extensively in 3 recent articles in my Substack, gives another example, where an LLM can’t play Tower of Hanoi with 9 pegs. (This is not a token-related artifact). Four other papers have shown related failures in compliance with moderately complex rules in the last month.
    3. [...]

    ---

    First published:
    June 30th, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q2PdrjowtXkYQ5whW/the-best-simple-argument-for-pausing-ai

    ---



    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    Show More Show Less
    2 mins
  • “X explains Z% of the variance in Y” by Leon Lang
    Jun 28 2025
    Audio note: this article contains 218 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description.

    Recently, in a group chat with friends, someone posted this Lesswrong post and quoted:

    The group consensus on somebody's attractiveness accounted for roughly 60% of the variance in people's perceptions of the person's relative attractiveness.

    I answered that, embarrassingly, even after reading Spencer Greenberg's tweets for years, I don't actually know what it means when one says:

    _X_ explains _p_ of the variance in _Y_.[1]

    What followed was a vigorous discussion about the correct definition, and several links to external sources like Wikipedia. Sadly, it seems to me that all online explanations (e.g. on Wikipedia here and here), while precise, seem philosophically wrong since they confuse the platonic concept of explained variance with the variance explained by [...]

    ---

    Outline:

    (02:38) Definitions

    (02:41) The verbal definition

    (05:51) The mathematical definition

    (09:29) How to approximate _1 - p_

    (09:41) When you have lots of data

    (10:45) When you have less data: Regression

    (12:59) Examples

    (13:23) Dependence on the regression model

    (14:59) When you have incomplete data: Twin studies

    (17:11) Conclusion

    The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

    ---

    First published:
    June 20th, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E3nsbq2tiBv6GLqjB/x-explains-z-of-the-variance-in-y

    ---



    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    ---

    Images from the article:

    Show More Show Less
    19 mins
  • “A case for courage, when speaking of AI danger” by So8res
    Jun 27 2025
    I think more people should say what they actually believe about AI dangers, loudly and often. Even if you work in AI policy.

    I’ve been beating this drum for a few years now. I have a whole spiel about how your conversation-partner will react very differently if you share your concerns while feeling ashamed about them versus if you share your concerns as if they’re obvious and sensible, because humans are very good at picking up on your social cues. If you act as if it's shameful to believe AI will kill us all, people are more prone to treat you that way. If you act as if it's an obvious serious threat, they’re more likely to take it seriously too.

    I have another whole spiel about how it's possible to speak on these issues with a voice of authority. Nobel laureates and lab heads and the most cited [...]

    The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

    ---

    First published:
    June 27th, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CYTwRZtrhHuYf7QYu/a-case-for-courage-when-speaking-of-ai-danger

    ---



    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    Show More Show Less
    10 mins
  • “My pitch for the AI Village” by Daniel Kokotajlo
    Jun 25 2025
    I think the AI Village should be funded much more than it currently is; I’d wildly guess that the AI safety ecosystem should be funding it to the tune of $4M/year.[1] I have decided to donate $100k. Here is why.

    First, what is the village? Here's a brief summary from its creators:[2]

    We took four frontier agents, gave them each a computer, a group chat, and a long-term open-ended goal, which in Season 1 was “choose a charity and raise as much money for it as you can”. We then run them for hours a day, every weekday! You can read more in our recap of Season 1, where the agents managed to raise $2000 for charity, and you can watch the village live daily at 11am PT at theaidigest.org/village.

    Here's the setup (with Season 2's goal):



    And here's what the village looks like:[3]



    My one-sentence pitch [...]

    ---

    Outline:

    (03:26) 1. AI Village will teach the scientific community new things.

    (06:12) 2. AI Village will plausibly go viral repeatedly and will therefore educate the public about what's going on with AI.

    (07:42) But is that bad actually?

    (11:07) Appendix A: Feature requests

    (12:55) Appendix B: Vignette of what success might look like

    The original text contained 8 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

    ---

    First published:
    June 24th, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/APfuz9hFz9d8SRETA/my-pitch-for-the-ai-village

    ---



    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    ---

    Images from the article:

    Show More Show Less
    13 mins