LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

By: LessWrong
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  • Summary

  • Audio narrations of LessWrong posts. Includes all curated posts and all posts with 125+ karma.

    If you'd like more, subscribe to the “Lesswrong (30+ karma)” feed.
    © 2024 LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
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Episodes
  • “‘It’s a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so it should be 100%’” by egor.timatkov

    “‘It’s a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so it should be 100%’” by egor.timatkov
    Nov 20 2024
    Audio note: this article contains 33 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description.

    Many of you readers may instinctively know that this is wrong. If you flip a coin (50% chance) twice, you are not guaranteed to get heads. The odds of getting a heads are 75%. However you may be surprised to learn that there is some truth to this statement; modifying the statement just slightly will yield not just a true statement, but a useful one.

    It's a spoiler, though. If you want to figure this out as you read this article yourself, you should skip this and then come back. Ok, ready? Here it is:

    It's a _1/n_ chance and I did it _n_ times, so the odds should be... _63%_. Almost always.



    The math:

    Suppose you're [...]

    ---

    Outline:

    (01:04) The math:

    (02:12) Hold on a sec, that formula looks familiar...

    (02:58) So, if something is a _1/n_ chance, and I did it _n_ times, the odds should be... _63\\%_.

    (03:12) What Im NOT saying:

    ---

    First published:
    November 18th, 2024

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pNkjHuQGDetRZypmA/it-s-a-10-chance-which-i-did-10-times-so-it-should-be-100

    ---

    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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    5 mins
  • “OpenAI Email Archives” by habryka

    “OpenAI Email Archives” by habryka
    Nov 19 2024
    As part of the court case between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, a substantial number of emails between Elon, Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever, and Greg Brockman have been released as part of the court proceedings.

    I have found reading through these really valuable, and I haven't found an online source that compiles all of them in an easy to read format. So I made one.

    I used AI assistance to generate this, which might have introduced errors. Check the original source to make sure it's accurate before you quote it: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69013420/musk-v-altman/ [1]

    Sam Altman to Elon Musk - May 25, 2015

    Been thinking a lot about whether it's possible to stop humanity from developing AI.

    I think the answer is almost definitely not.

    If it's going to happen anyway, it seems like it would be good for someone other than Google to do it first.

    Any thoughts on [...]

    ---

    Outline:

    (00:36) Sam Altman to Elon Musk - May 25, 2015

    (01:19) Elon Musk to Sam Altman - May 25, 2015

    (01:28) Sam Altman to Elon Musk - Jun 24, 2015

    (03:31) Elon Musk to Sam Altman - Jun 24, 2015

    (03:39) Greg Brockman to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Altman) - Nov 22, 2015

    (06:06) Elon Musk to Sam Altman - Dec 8, 2015

    (07:07) Sam Altman to Elon Musk - Dec 8, 2015

    (07:59) Sam Altman to Elon Musk - Dec 11, 2015

    (08:32) Elon Musk to Sam Altman - Dec 11, 2015

    (08:50) Sam Altman to Elon Musk - Dec 11, 2015

    (09:01) Elon Musk to Sam Altman - Dec 11, 2015

    (09:08) Sam Altman to Elon Musk - Dec 11, 2015

    (09:26) Elon Musk to: Ilya Sutskever, Pamela Vagata, Vicki Cheung, Diederik Kingma, Andrej Karpathy, John D. Schulman, Trevor Blackwell, Greg Brockman, (cc:Sam Altman) - Dec 11, 2015

    (10:35) Greg Brockman to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Altman) - Feb 21, 2016

    (15:11) Elon Musk to Greg Brockman, (cc: Sam Altman) - Feb 22, 2016

    (15:54) Greg Brockman to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Altman) - Feb 22, 2016

    (16:14) Greg Brockman to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Teller) - Mar 21, 2016

    (17:58) Elon Musk to Greg Brockman, (cc: Sam Teller) - Mar 21, 2016

    (18:08) Sam Teller to Elon Musk - April 27, 2016

    (19:28) Elon Musk to Sam Teller - Apr 27, 2016

    (20:05) Sam Altman to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 16, 2016

    (25:31) Elon Musk to Sam Altman, (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 16, 2016

    (26:36) Sam Altman to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 16, 2016

    (27:01) Elon Musk to Sam Altman, (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 16, 2016

    (27:17) Sam Altman to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 16, 2016

    (27:29) Sam Teller to Elon Musk - Sep 20, 2016

    (27:55) Elon Musk to Sam Teller - Sep 21, 2016

    (28:11) Ilya Sutskever to Elon Musk, Greg Brockman - Jul 20, 2017

    (29:41) Shivon Zilis to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Teller) - Aug 28, 2017

    (33:15) Elon Musk to Shivon Zilis, (cc: Sam Teller) - Aug 28, 2017

    (33:30) Ilya Sutskever to Elon Musk, Sam Altman, (cc: Greg Brockman, Sam Teller, Shivon Zilis) - Sep 20, 2017

    (39:05) Elon Musk to Ilya Sutskever, Sam Altman (cc: Greg Brockman, Sam Teller, Shivon Zilis) - Sep 20, 2017

    (39:24) Sam Altman to Elon Musk, Ilya Sutskever (cc: Greg Brockman, Sam Teller, Shivon Zilis) - Sep 21, 2017

    (39:40) Shivon Zilis to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 22, 2017

    (40:10) Elon Musk to Shivon Zilis (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 22, 2017

    (40:20) Shivon Zilis to Elon Musk, (cc: Sam Teller) - Sep 22, 2017

    (41:54) Sam Altman to Elon Musk (cc: Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever, Sam Teller, Shivon Zilis) - Jan 21, 2018

    (42:28) Elon Musk to Sam Altman (cc: Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever, Sam Teller, Shivon Zilis) - Jan 21, 2018

    (42:42) Andrej Karpathy to Elon Musk, (cc: Shivon Zilis) - Jan 31, 2018
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    1 hr and 3 mins
  • “Ayn Rand’s model of ‘living money’; and an upside of burnout” by AnnaSalamon

    “Ayn Rand’s model of ‘living money’; and an upside of burnout” by AnnaSalamon
    Nov 18 2024
    Epistemic status: Toy model. Oversimplified, but has been anecdotally useful to at least a couple people, and I like it as a metaphor.

    Introduction

    I’d like to share a toy model of willpower: your psyche's conscious verbal planner “earns” willpower (earns a certain amount of trust with the rest of your psyche) by choosing actions that nourish your fundamental, bottom-up processes in the long run. For example, your verbal planner might expend willpower dragging you to disappointing first dates, then regain that willpower, and more, upon finding a date that leads to good long-term romance. Wise verbal planners can acquire large willpower budgets by making plans that, on average, nourish your fundamental processes. Delusional or uncaring verbal planners, on the other hand, usually become “burned out” – their willpower budget goes broke-ish, leaving them little to no access to willpower.

    I’ll spend the next section trying to stick this [...]

    ---

    Outline:

    (00:17) Introduction

    (01:10) On processes that lose their relationship to the unknown

    (02:58) Ayn Rand's model of “living money”

    (06:44) An analogous model of “living willpower” and burnout.

    The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

    ---

    First published:
    November 16th, 2024

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xtuk9wkuSP6H7CcE2/ayn-rand-s-model-of-living-money-and-an-upside-of-burnout

    ---

    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
    Show More Show Less
    9 mins

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