LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

By: LessWrong
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  • Audio narrations of LessWrong posts. Includes all curated posts and all posts with 125+ karma.

    If you'd like more, subscribe to the “Lesswrong (30+ karma)” feed.
    © 2024 LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
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Episodes
  • “My theory of change for working in AI healthtech” by Andrew_Critch

    “My theory of change for working in AI healthtech” by Andrew_Critch
    Oct 15 2024
    This post starts out pretty gloomy but ends up with some points that I feel pretty positive about. Day to day, I'm more focussed on the positive points, but awareness of the negative has been crucial to forming my priorities, so I'm going to start with those. It's mostly addressed to the EA community, but is hopefully somewhat of interest to LessWrong and the Alignment Forum as well.

    My main concerns

    I think AGI is going to be developed soon, and quickly. Possibly (20%) that's next year, and most likely (80%) before the end of 2029. These are not things you need to believe for yourself in order to understand my view, so no worries if you're not personally convinced of this.

    (For what it's worth, I did arrive at this view through years of study and research in AI, combined with over a decade of private forecasting practice [...]

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    Outline:

    (00:28) My main concerns

    (03:41) Extinction by industrial dehumanization

    (06:00) Successionism as a driver of industrial dehumanization

    (11:08) My theory of change: confronting successionism with human-specific industries

    (15:53) How I identified healthcare as the industry most relevant to caring for humans

    (20:00) But why not just do safety work with big AI labs or governments?

    (23:22) Conclusion

    The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

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    First published:
    October 12th, 2024

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kobbt3nQgv3yn29pr/my-theory-of-change-for-working-in-ai-healthtech

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    ---

    Images from the article:

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    25 mins
  • “Why I’m not a Bayesian” by Richard_Ngo

    “Why I’m not a Bayesian” by Richard_Ngo
    Oct 15 2024
    This post focuses on philosophical objections to Bayesianism as an epistemology. I first explain Bayesianism and some standard objections to it, then lay out my two main objections (inspired by ideas in philosophy of science). A follow-up post will speculate about how to formalize an alternative.

    Degrees of belief

    The core idea of Bayesianism: we should ideally reason by assigning credences to propositions which represent our degrees of belief that those propositions are true.

    If that seems like a sufficient characterization to you, you can go ahead and skip to the next section, where I explain my objections to it. But for those who want a more precise description of Bayesianism, and some existing objections to it, I’ll more specifically characterize it in terms of five subclaims. Bayesianism says that we should ideally reason in terms of:

    1. Propositions which are either true or false (classical logic)
    2. Each of [...]
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    Outline:

    (00:22) Degrees of belief

    (04:06) Degrees of truth

    (08:05) Model-based reasoning

    (13:43) The role of Bayesianism

    The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

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    First published:
    October 6th, 2024

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TyusAoBMjYzGN3eZS/why-i-m-not-a-bayesian

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    ---

    Images from the article:

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    18 mins
  • “The AGI Entente Delusion” by Max Tegmark

    “The AGI Entente Delusion” by Max Tegmark
    Oct 14 2024
    As humanity gets closer to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a new geopolitical strategy is gaining traction in US and allied circles, in the NatSec, AI safety and tech communities. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and RAND Corporation call it the “entente”, while others privately refer to it as “hegemony" or “crush China”. I will argue that, irrespective of one's ethical or geopolitical preferences, it is fundamentally flawed and against US national security interests.

    If the US fights China in an AGI race, the only winners will be machines

    The entente strategy

    Amodei articulates key elements of this strategy as follows:

    "a coalition of democracies seeks to gain a clear advantage (even just a temporary one) on powerful AI by securing its supply chain, scaling quickly, and blocking or delaying adversaries’ access to key resources like chips and semiconductor equipment. This coalition would on one hand use AI to achieve robust [...]

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    Outline:

    (00:51) The entente strategy

    (02:22) Why it's a suicide race

    (09:19) Loss-of-control

    (11:32) A better strategy: tool AI

    The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

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    First published:
    October 13th, 2024

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oJQnRDbgSS8i6DwNu/the-agi-entente-delusion

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    ---

    Images from the article:

    Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
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    18 mins

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