The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed opportunities) for supporting Kyiv?

The texts are available here.

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We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make.

The various articles and surveys I cite are:

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdf
Russian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16
Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Meduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end
PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/en
New Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraine
Vedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-silu
Ukrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/
Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefire

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?

For those who get lost in the flow, they are:

PERSONALIA

· Elvira Nabiullina

· Ramzan Kadyrov

· Alexander Khinshtein

· Alexei Dyumin

· Sergei Naryshkin

· Nikolai Patrushev

· (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)

INSTITS

· Security Council

· FSB

· State Council

PROCESSES

· ‘Covert federalisation’

· Lateral alliances

· End of party pseudo-politics?

· Rise of SVO generation?

· Labour shortage

· Deviancy

POLICIES

· Shadow War

· Africa/North Africa

· India

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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