• “A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress” by Thane Ruthenis

  • Mar 6 2025
  • Length: 19 mins
  • Podcast

“A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress” by Thane Ruthenis

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  • Summary

  • This isn't really a "timeline", as such – I don't know the timings – but this is my current, fairly optimistic take on where we're heading.

    I'm not fully committed to this model yet: I'm still on the lookout for more agents and inference-time scaling later this year. But Deep Research, Claude 3.7, Claude Code, Grok 3, and GPT-4.5 have turned out largely in line with these expectations[1], and this is my current baseline prediction.

    The Current Paradigm: I'm Tucking In to Sleep

    I expect that none of the currently known avenues of capability advancement are sufficient to get us to AGI[2].

    • I don't want to say the pretraining will "plateau", as such, I do expect continued progress. But the dimensions along which the progress happens are going to decouple from the intuitive "getting generally smarter" metric, and will face steep diminishing returns.
      • Grok 3 and GPT-4.5 [...]
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    Outline:

    (00:35) The Current Paradigm: Im Tucking In to Sleep

    (10:24) Real-World Predictions

    (15:25) Closing Thoughts

    The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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    First published:
    March 5th, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKAFFvaouKKEhbBPm/a-bear-case-my-predictions-regarding-ai-progress

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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