Discontent is looming in Ukraine this winter. Following the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, the country's political climate has changed dramatically after six years of imperfect progress. In recent months, the government has abandoned reforms and reverted to the worst practices of the toxic past. Ukraine is now in danger of descending into the same kind of corrupt chaos that characterized its first two decades as an independent nation. As one of the reformers who entered government in the tumultuous period after the traumatic events of early 2014, I recognize that now we are at an ominous crossroads in Ukraine's nation-building journey. Indeed, we haven't lost the war yet, but we've lost a significant battle. Over the past six years, thousands of young Ukrainians have interrupted their careers to contribute to the transformation of their country. In the immediate aftermath of the Revolution of Dignity, some took up public office. Volodymyr Groysman and Oleksiy Honcharuk both did so during their later governments. This period of optimism and idealism has ended. Their place has been taken by officials whose values are completely different from their own. Advocates of reform and supporters of liberal, pro-Western views have been forced out of public service altogether. They are now being illegally targeted by the security services. Young Ukrainians' enthusiasm for public service in recent years is unlikely to be repeated. Despite the patriotic sentiment in the private sector, the government has done everything it can to discourage its top talent from joining the government. In addition to intentionally low wages, bogus criminal charges, and the near-certainty of persistent attacks by Ukraine's oligarch-controlled mainstream media, there are other deterrents. Few people find this appealing, as it is understandable. The most tragic aspect of the current situation is that President Zelenskyy had the opportunity to fundamentally change this country a little over one year ago. Following his unexpected victory in Ukraine's presidential election in April 2019, coupled with the Servant of the People party's equally impressive victory in parliamentary elections three months later, he had an unprecedented opportunity to push through a program of potentially tough reforms. Ukraine, on the other hand, has shifted in the opposite direction. Ukraine's president has now undone most of the modest progress that came before him, despite running on a vague but broadly reformist platform. Eight years have passed subsequently Ukraine has regressed. What has led to this dramatic reversal of Ukraine's national trajectory? Insert Photo It has been the country's oligarchs who have played the decisive role so often in its history as an independent state. Due to their near-total control over the Ukrainian media, democratic forces have been marginalized and discredited. Through their widespread influence in the civil service, law enforcement, business, and particularly the judiciary, they have sabotaged, blocked, stifled, and ultimately reversed reform after reform. This oligarch-led counter-revolution is evident. Now that Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration isn't a foregone conclusion, the country's pro-Russian lobby is once again gaining confidence and raising its voice. The West is gradually lessening its support for Ukraine as formerly dependable allies begin to doubt the direction it is taking under President Zelenskyy. What better way to change that than war? Ukraine's future trajectory is a subject of doubt among the domestic audience. Millions of Ukrainians have watched bewildered and angry in recent weeks as the Constitutional Court casually annulled some of the most significant reforms of the past six years. Zelenskyy's blustering response to the crisis has become bogged down in parliament, so there are concerns that the Constitutional Court will now follow the same course. There is widespread expectation that the court will reverse even more of the post-2014 legislation that briefly brought Ukraine closer to the dream of a European future. Zelenskyy's first eighteen months as president have had little in common with the ideals that he claimed to represent throughout his campaign. On top of that, they directly contradict the will of the Ukrainian people, who have made it clear that they wish to see the country pursue radical reforms. Unrest and instability are a result of this disconnect between policy and promises. Ukraine's underlying problems need to be resolved before mass protests can succeed. It has now become painfully clear that efforts to transform Ukraine since 2014 have not succeeded in changing the state's foundation or ushering in a truly new era. As long as we continue to play by the rules of the oligarchic system, Ukraine will remain destined to repeat its mistakes. Ukrainian popular uprisings have achieved some important gains such as the right to free and...
