With rate cuts looking like they are coming to the end of the cycle, Pendal's head of government bond strategies Tim Hext provides his insights on the outlook for 2026.

"It is an unclear picture, but definitely the global rate cutting cycle - which was a feature of late 2024 and most of this year - is now over," explains Tim.

He says rate cuts in Australia are highly unlikely at least for the next six to nine months based on the latest inflation data.

However, Tim is optimistic that inflation will not hit a level that is unsettling for the bond market.

"If you think back to last decade, we had inflation consistently slightly undershooting to 2% at the bottom of the RBA band, and we're going to see inflation consistently shooting above 3% for the first half of next year, but not at a level which will make things unsettled," he says.

How does this rate uncertainty shape portfolio construction? Tim explains in this podcast.

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What’s driving the rotation in equities around the globe at the moment?

Pendal portfolio manager Elise McKay points to the evolving flow of money. “The rise of passive, the rise of systematic trading have contributed to an increase of volatility in our market," Elise explains in our latest podcast.

“During the extreme market moves we saw last week, ETFs were accounting for 38% of market volumes compared to a historical average of around 28%.”

With the market crowding into long-duration growth stocks, any sign of uncertainty in the economy or questions over the easing cycle help drive heavy rotation into cyclicals and financials.

How should investors approach this volatile period? Elise explains in this podcast.

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Find out more about Pendal's Australian equities strategies here.

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*Pendal has a position in the stocks mentioned in this podcast.

This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As tariff news has died down, markets have come flying back in the last few months.

“But we do have a world now where the US tariff rate on average is around 18%,” observes Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.

“That is not a world we have seen for almost 100 years, not since World War II."

It’s an environment made for active investors, says Tim in this new short podcast.

It can take years to understand the full impact of trade tariffs, yet markets tend to be very short-term focused, he says.

"That does present a lot of opportunities for an active manager," says Tim.

"It gives does give us plenty of good opportunities to add value in active portfolios, and that's what we're doing at the moment."

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After two days of talks in London, China and the US last week agreed in principle to de-escalate trade tensions.

How that plays out is unclear.

But in this new podcast, Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick explains the outlook for the world's two biggest economies and what it means for investors.

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia is in a surprisingly good position to weather the Trump administration’s trade policies, says Pendal’s head of government bonds TIM HEXT in this fast podcast

“We have reasons to be optimistic down here, albeit it's not going to be quite as good as it could have been," says Tim.

“We're going to get very close to all our long-term aspirations this year.

Inflation is expected to end the year around 2.7% – within a whisker of the 2.5% target.

Growth is likely to be around 2.25%, unemployment around 4.25% and wages around 3% to 3.25%, he says.

“The trouble of course is what Trump and his tariffs may do to that – but I still think we can be reasonably confident Australia will weather the upcoming storm well."

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fixed-income investors looking for lower yields – and therefore higher prices on their bond investments – may be disappointed with the recent cycle.

But investors need not be concerned, since conditions still favour a rate-cutting environment, says Amy Xie Patrick, who leads Pendal’s fixed-income strategies.

Underlying inflation is under control – supported by a looser US labour market which has not yet been impacted by President Trump’s mooted immigration crack-down. In Australia a tighter labour market has not led to significant wage increases.

“The market's priced in two more US cuts this year, maybe another two in Australia.

"The RBA has enough room to get back to neutral fairly quickly… And the Federal Reserve probably has the ability to move a little bit more than the market’s priced in.

“It’s still a choppy year ahead – but this is where a proven active process for duration and rates really does count for fixed-income portfolios.”

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors could not be blamed for feeling a bit queasy at Donald Trump’s whiplash approach to tariffs.

What does it mean for inflation and markets?

“The tariff threat does add to this argument that inflation isn't about to come down anytime soon,” says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext.

“The market is right to be a little bit concerned. Obviously free trade – or some version of free trade – is generally to the benefit of both parties.

“The law of comparative advantage says you end up focusing on what you are a cheap producer of.

“If you start throwing sand into the gears of free trade that’s not a good thing.

“Ultimately, I think it is bad for growth and will mean slightly higher inflation, but not enough to suddenly cause rate hikes in the near future.”

It creates a lot of short-term noise, but fortunately investors with a medium-to-long-term time-frame can leave it to people like me to worry about that."

Tim says investors should hold course for now.

In the podcast Tim lays out his latest thinking on fixed interest investing.

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the surprises of 2024 was the absence of rate cuts in Australia.

What happened and how long will the Reserve Bank sit on its hands?

Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XI PATRICK explains in this review of 2024 and outlook for 2025.

This is our final podcast for 2024. We wish our listeners a happy and safe Christmas and new year. We will return in 2025.

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It’s been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information in this podcast may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Any projections contained in this podcast is predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.