In his latest memo, Howard addresses a common question he’s been receiving over the last few months: “What about credit spreads?” He explains that the key question should be whether today’s spread is sufficient to offset the credit losses that’ll occur, rather than whether it’s historically narrow or not. Further, he emphasizes that spread widening is a short-term phenomenon and expresses his belief that the elevated yield offered by credit presents a better deal than equities, even at today’s spreads.

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his recent memo, On Bubble Watch, which revisits a subject he first wrote about 25 years ago. He delves into the investor psychology that underpins a market bubble, and assesses the danger of letting excitement and fear of missing out override risk aversion.

You can listen to or read the Memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch).

On January 2, 2000, Howard Marks published his first memo to garner any reader response, bubble.com, calling attention to excesses he detected in the market for tech and internet stocks. His newest memo revisits the subject of bubbles. Howard expresses his view that they’re more a state of mind than a quantitative calculation and describes bubble thinking as irrational, often underlaid by a widespread belief that ‘‘this time is different.’’ Rather than opining on whether we’re in a bubble, Howard lists the signs he sees today and suggests how you might think about them . . . just as he did 25 years ago.

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch).