• AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51);
• Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03);
• DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09);
• So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16);
• One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24);
• The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37);
• What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10);
• Background on the guest (33:02);
• The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08);

• Website: VerdadCap.com;
• Twitter/X: @VerdadCap.

• Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00);
• There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43);
• The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change -- and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26);
• Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55);
• Background on the guest (23:28);
• Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in... (26:07);
• The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech... (30:28);
• Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).

Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt.

This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack.

• The US economy is headed to 'serious problems' and the guest's mission is to educate people to the gravity of the situation (1:47);
• Debt and fiscal deficits are nothing for the US. But its debt/GDP ratios is reaching a breaking point (2:57);
• How soon might the breaking point arrive? (5:30);
• Is there anything from the new Trump administration that might turn the tide? Elon Musk's DOGE program has promise... (11:02);
• What about tariffs? (16:22);
• Background on the guest (20:36);
• The need for more education: not just financial literacy, but economics (23:55).

• Website: MainStreetEconomics.org;
• YouTube: MainStreetEconomics762;
• LinkedIn: Main-Street-Economics;
• Twitter/X: @MainStreetEcon;
• Instagram: @MainStreetEconomics;
• Facebook: MainStreetEconomics.

• Natural gas as the energy of the future even as prices of the commodity itself plummet (1:08);
• Oil exploration is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive, and risky (2:58);
• The 'John D. Rockefeller moment' for natural gas (5:46);
• What role can nuclear energy play? (16:03);
• In natural gas, there will be winners and losers, however... (18:00);
• Where are the best opportunities? (19:51);
• Background on the guest (28:39);
• How will the new presidential administration (Trump 2.0) impact things? (41:38).

• Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18);
• Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01);
• What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31);
• Background on the guest (26:50);
• Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59);
• Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28)

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

• Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
• Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
• Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
• The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
• What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
• What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

• The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
• What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
• How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);
• The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
• However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);
• Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);
• Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);
• Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

• Website: MarcToMarket.com;
• X: @marcmakingsense.

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.

• What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
• About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
• Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
• Background on the guest (23:05);
• If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
• Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

• Website: AmCiv.com;
• X: @FlipPidot;
• Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.