Episodes

  • Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism

    Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
    Nov 18 2024
    Emil Verner is an associate professor of finance at MIT Sloan and is a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Emil has written widely on financial stability, banking panics, and credit booms, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these issues. Specifically, David and Emil also discuss the causes and policy implications of bank failures, the shortcomings of the Diamond-Dybvig model of bank runs, how financial crises spur the rise of populism, and much more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference. Emil’s Twitter: @EmilVerner Emil’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Failing Banks* by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner *Banking Crises Without Panics* by Matthew Baron, Emil Verner, and Wei Xiong *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debor Conflict, and Populism* by Gyozo Gyongyosi and Emil Verner *Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit* by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber *Going to Extremes: Politics After Financial Crises, 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:45) – Why Do We Care About Banking Panics and Financial Stability? (00:05:42) – Breaking Down the Causes of Bank Failures and its Policy Implications (00:13:38) – Exploring the Historical Banking Data (00:15:59) – *Failing Banks*: Key Findings and Takeaways (00:24:00) – *Banking Crises Without Panics* (00:28:05) – Responding to the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Bank Runs (00:33:29) – Applying the Bank Solvency Story to the Great Financial Crisis (00:36:16) – The Impact of Credit Booms (00:40:56) – What Are the Necessary Policy Prescriptions? (00:43:08) – Why is Diamond-Dybvig So Popular? (00:47:01) – *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Populism* (00:52:55) – How Do We Stem the Tide of Populism in the Future? (00:54:36) – Outro
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    55 mins
  • Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework

    Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
    Nov 11 2024

    Loretta Mester was president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from 2014 through June of 2024, and she is a 39-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Loretta is also currently an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time Fed president and a recent paper she delivered on the Fed’s operating system. David and Loretta also discuss the ongoing battle against inflation, what to expect from the upcoming Fed framework review, and much more.

    Transcript for this week’s episode.

    Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.

    Loretta’s Cleveland Fed profile

    Loretta’s Wharton profile

    David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

    Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

    Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

    Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

    Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

    Check out our Macro Musings merch!

    Related Links:

    *The Fed’s Ample Reserves Monetary Policy Operating Framework: It Isn’t as Simple as it Looks* – Remarks by Loretta Mester for the Panel on The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Evolution from Free Reserves to the Corridor and Floor Systems at the Shadow Open Market Committee 50th Anniversary Conference

    *Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)* by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

    Timestamps:

    (00:00:00) – Intro

    (00:02:18) – Loretta’s Career Path and Tenure at the Cleveland Fed

    (00:10:42) – The Ongoing Battle Against Inflation

    (00:17:53) – Evaluating FAIT and What to Expect from the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review

    (00:26:03) – Corridor vs. Floor: The Evolution of the Fed’s Operating System and its Policy Implications

    (00:41:31) – Estimating the Demand for Bank Reserves

    (00:45:57) – Addressing Over-reliance on the Fed in the Interbank Market

    (00:52:45) – Loretta’s Thoughts on Central Clearing and Increased Use of the Discount Window

    (00:55:23) – Outro
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    56 mins
  • Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy

    Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
    Nov 4 2024
    Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he is also the host of a Hoover Institution podcast titled, *Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century.* Jon joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Hoover Institution’s recent monetary policy conference, *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* as well as some of his own related work. Specifically, Jon and David also discuss the origins, purpose, and influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee, the tension between the fiscal theory of the price level and Fed policy, the significance of government debt management, and more. DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Transcript for this week’s episode. Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference. Jon’s podcast: Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Jon’s Twitter: @Jon_Hartley_ Jon’s website David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* - An event hosted by the Hoover Institution *The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle: Testing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Across Countries and Time* by Jon Hartley, Matyas Farkas, and J.R. Scott *Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification from U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements* by Jon Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon *The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan *The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-scale Historical Experiment* by Nuno Palma *Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold* by Francois Velde Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Bumper (00:00:41) – Intro (00:04:50) – The Origins, Purpose, and Influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee (00:13:18) – Why Has Money Fallen Out of Favor? (00:22:31) – How Well Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Hold Up? (00:34:58) – The Tension Between the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Fed Policy (00:40:58) – Does Government Debt Management Matter? (00:51:10) – The Floor System, Quantitative Easing, and the Keys to Economic Growth (00:59:41) – Outro
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    1 hr
  • Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review

    Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
    Oct 28 2024
    Tara Sinclair is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, where she also directs the George Washington Center for Economic Research. From 2022 to 2024, Tara also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the US Department of Treasury. Tara joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time at Treasury, real-time economic analysis, the Fed framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s episode. Tara’s Twitter: @TaraSinc Tara’s website Tara’s GWU profile David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 2024 RTE Conference *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser *The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Don Kohn *Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market* by Michael Kiley *Did the Federal Reserve’s 2020 Policy Framework Limit Its Response to Inflation? Evidence and Implications for the Framework Review* by Christina Romer and David Romer Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:25) – Working as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department (00:06:31) – Building a Better Economic Database (00:10:15) – Breaking Down Real-time Economics and Real-time Data (00:16:06) – *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* (00:21:37) – Solving Our Current Data Challenges (00:24:36) – *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* (00:32:08) – Breaking Down the Upcoming Fed Framework Review (00:37:56) – Addressing the Concerns and Issues Surrounding the Fed’s Framework (00:42:50) – Unpacking the Dual Mandate and the Fed’s Broad and Inclusive Goal (00:53:45) – Could AI Define Maximum Employment in the Future? (00:56:13) – Outro
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    57 mins
  • Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review

    Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
    Oct 21 2024

    Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former senior Fed staffer, and a returning guest to the podcast. Joe rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the unholy trinity behind the COVID inflation surge and what history can teach us about the unusual inflation experience of that period. David and Joe also discuss the inflationary lessons from the Korean War, the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and much more.

    Transcript for this week’s episode.

    Joseph’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro

    Joseph’s PIIE profile

    David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

    Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

    Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

    Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

    Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

    Check out our Macro Musings merch!

    Related Links:

    *What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?* by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard

    *Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era* by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra

    Timestamps:

    (00:00:00) – Intro

    (00:02:46) – Predicting the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

    (00:06:39) – Assessing the State of the Bond Market and Inflation Expectations After the Inflation Surge

    (00:16:14) – What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation: Breaking Down the Literature

    (00:23:45) – *The Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation in G7 Economies*

    (00:32:55) – *Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War*

    (00:42:06) – Inflation, FAIT, and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review

    (00:49:18) – Why Should the Fed Consider Nominal GDP Targeting?

    (00:53:04) – Responding to the Measurement Issue Surrounding Nominal GDP

    (00:57:40) – Outro
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    58 mins
  • Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy

    Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy
    Oct 14 2024

    Emilio Ocampo is a professor of finance and economic history at UCEMA. He has written widely on the Argentine economy and has advised President Javier Milei on economic policy. Emilio joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the current state of the Argentine economy, the present and ongoing reforms of President Milei, and the prospects for dollarization in Argentina.

    Transcript for this week’s episode.

    Emilio’s Twitter: @ocampo_emilio

    Emilio’s Substack

    Emilio’s UCEMA profile

    David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

    Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

    Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

    Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

    Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

    Check out our Macro Musings merch!

    Related Links:

    *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie: The Case of Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo

    *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky

    *Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market is Thriving* by Ryan Dube

    Timestamps:

    (00:00:00) – Intro

    (00:03:58) – Assessing Argentina’s Progress on Lowering Inflation

    (00:11:12) – Exploring the Causes of Argentina’s Poor Economic Performance

    (00:15:20) – *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie*

    (00:26:29) – Javier Milei’s Plan to Revive Argentina

    (00:31:39) – The Next Steps for Argentine Economic Reform

    (00:39:56) – Defining Dollarization and Exploring its Historical Cases

    (00:49:33) – Transitioning to Dollarization in Argentina

    (00:55:12) – Dollarization Concerns and the Prospects for Dollarization Moving Forward

    (00:58:48) – Outro
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    59 mins
  • Jonathon Hazell on the Costs and Causes of Inflation and the Phillips Curve Debate

    Jonathon Hazell on the Costs and Causes of Inflation and the Phillips Curve Debate
    Oct 7 2024

    Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the costs of inflation, the Phillips curve Debate, and the lessons learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge.

    Transcript for this week’s episode.

    Jonathon’s Twitter: @JADHazell

    Jonathon’s website

    Jonathon’s LSE profile

    David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

    Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

    Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

    Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

    Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

    Check out our Macro Musings merch!

    Related Links:

    *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* by Jonathon Hazell, Joao Guerreiro, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson

    *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* by Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler

    *Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star* by Macro Musings

    *The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation* by Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier

    Timestamps:

    (00:00:00) – Intro

    (00:05:27) – Breaking Down the Costs of Inflation

    (00:08:45) – *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs*

    (00:21:12) – Outlining the Policy Implications

    (00:27:24) – The Recent Phillips Curve Conversation: What Have We Learned?

    (00:34:43) – *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach*

    (00:46:39) – Navigating the Alternative Macroeconomics Perspectives

    (00:51:33) – Evaluating the Supply vs Demand Story for the Post-Pandemic Inflation

    (00:55:09) – Outro
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    56 mins
  • Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks

    Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks
    Sep 30 2024

    Thomas Drechsel is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the political pressure on the Fed and the new ways to measure monetary policy shocks. Thomas and David also discuss fiscal and monetary dominance, the impact of political pressure on inflation, why we should care about central bank independence, and more.

    Transcript for this week’s episode.

    Thomas’s website

    Thomas’s Twitter: @td_econ

    David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

    Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

    Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

    Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

    Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

    Check out our Macro Musings merch!

    Related Links:

    *Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data* by Thomas Drechsel

    *Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach* by S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel

    *Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence* by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers

    *Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs* by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Juan Rubio-Ramirez

    *Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Indentifcation with Twitter* by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung

    *A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer

    Timestamps:

    (00:00:00) – Intro

    (00:04:47) – Why Should We Care About Central Bank Independence?

    (00:08:01) – Fiscal and Monetary Dominance

    (00:12:41) – Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed

    (00:27:14) – Breaking Down the Research Results

    (00:36:46) – The Impact of Political Pressure on Inflation

    (00:43:07) – Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: Background, Methodology, and Results

    (00:59:45) – Outro
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    1 hr