Episodes

  • US Housing Market Outlook 2025: Slowing Growth, Regional Divides, and Policy Shifts

    US Housing Market Outlook 2025: Slowing Growth, Regional Divides, and Policy Shifts
    Nov 28 2025
    US Housing Market Analysis - November 27, 2025

    The US housing market is showing mixed signals as we enter late November 2025. Home price growth has slowed to its softest pace in over two years, marking a significant shift from earlier in the year. According to the latest data, home prices rose at the slowest rate since 2023, yet pending home sales actually climbed nationwide in October, suggesting that lower mortgage rates are beginning to attract cautious buyers back to the market.

    The 30-year fixed mortgage rate currently sits at 6.22 percent after climbing slightly in November, though this remains well below last year's highs. This decline from earlier peaks has sparked renewed interest, with Google searches for mortgage help hitting their highest levels since 2009, indicating continued affordability pressures for potential homebuyers.

    A stark geographic divide is emerging across the country. While New York added 216 billion dollars in housing value over the past year, more than any other state, pandemic-era boom states are struggling. Florida, California, and Texas have lost billions in housing market value in 2025. Real estate agents in these states report that inventory is building rapidly and sellers are offering price cuts to entice buyers. In Florida specifically, 85 percent of counties showed home price declines compared to a year ago.

    The national housing market has gained 20 trillion dollars in value over five years, reaching a record 55 trillion dollars. However, this growth masks underlying weakness. Pending home sales declined 2.1 percent year over year during the four weeks ending November 23, marking the biggest decline in eight months.

    Meanwhile, mortgage originations are surging due to refinancing activity, reaching 300 billion dollars in the second and third quarters. Borrowers are increasingly choosing variable-rate mortgages and shorter-term fixed options, reflecting hopes that rates may fall further.

    The Trump administration is reportedly working on introducing 50-year mortgage terms as a potential affordability solution. Policy experts suggest this could reshape the market by lowering monthly payments and expanding buyer eligibility, though it may ultimately drive prices higher through increased demand.

    Overall, the housing market faces a crossroads marked by affordability crises, regional disparities, and policy uncertainty as we approach year-end 2025.

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Shifts Toward Buyers Amid Price Cuts and Seller Pressure

    US Housing Market Shifts Toward Buyers Amid Price Cuts and Seller Pressure
    Nov 27 2025
    US Housing Market Shows Buyer Advantage as Sellers Face Pressure

    The US housing market continues its shift toward buyers, with significant developments emerging over the past 48 hours. As of November 26, 2025, pending home sales rose 1.9 percent month-over-month in October, reaching the highest level in a year. This uptick signals renewed buyer interest, particularly as mortgage rates have trended downward to approximately 6.17 percent after hitting a 2025 low of 6.12 percent in late October.

    However, the market remains marked by substantial headwinds. The seller-to-buyer ratio has reached record imbalance levels, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 36.8 percent in October, the largest gap since Redfin began tracking data in 2013. This mismatch represents approximately 528,769 people, fundamentally reshaping negotiating power in favor of buyers.

    Price pressure is intensifying across most markets. In October, cumulative price cuts reached 25,000 dollars, matching the largest discounts ever recorded by Zillow. Individual discounts average 10,000 dollars, with sellers increasingly offering multiple reductions as homes linger on the market. The most expensive markets show the steepest dollar discounts, with San Jose leading at 70,900 dollars. However, secondary markets like Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Austin offer better percentage-based deals, ranging from 8.2 to 9 percent of home values.

    The national median home price rose 1.3 percent year-over-year in September, down from 1.4 percent in August, marking the slowest gain in years. Despite tepid demand, prices remain resilient due to strategic seller behavior. Delistings surged 28 percent year-over-year to 85,000 homes, with sellers pulling properties rather than accepting lowball offers. Notably, 70 percent of listings are now stale, remaining on the market for at least 60 days.

    Buyer activity has declined 1.7 percent to the second-lowest level ever, driven by high housing costs and economic uncertainty. However, the falling mortgage rates and aggressive seller discounting are beginning to attract more serious buyers entering the market during autumn months.

    Federal Reserve officials noted mixed housing conditions across regions, with limited supply continuing to underpin prices even as demand weakens. The coming months will reveal whether current buyer momentum sustains or retreats further.

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Stabilizing: Trends, Projections, and a Path to Balanced Growth

    US Housing Market Stabilizing: Trends, Projections, and a Path to Balanced Growth
    Nov 26 2025
    Over the past 48 hours the US housing industry has shown early signs of stabilization after several turbulent years. Mortgage rates have been trending down through 2025 and are now hovering near 6 percent. This is substantially lower than the 7 to 8 percent range seen last year which had locked many buyers out of the market. Improved affordability is bringing some buyers back but national turnover remains one of the lowest in decades with only 2.8 percent of US homes sold so far this year. The main reasons are still elevated prices and the fact that most homeowners have low fixed mortgage rates making them unwilling to sell unless necessary.

    Despite these headwinds, inventory is slowly loosening as more owners with rates above 6 percent decide to list due to life reasons like job changes and family needs. National housing inventory has increased every month in 2025. As a result, homes are spending more time on the market, there are more price reductions, and bidding wars have cooled significantly. Year-over-year home prices are basically flat nationally, but trends vary widely depending on location. Some markets like Illinois, New York, and New Jersey have seen price increases up to about 7 percent, while states like Florida are experiencing declines up to 2.3 percent.

    According to the FHFA, US house prices rose 2.2 percent between the third quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, and rose just 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. Analysts including Fannie Mae and the National Association of REALTORS expect mild appreciation for 2026 in the 1 to 4 percent range. Existing-home sales have ticked up 1.2 percent in October, with modest growth in the Midwest and South.

    Major industry players are focusing on normalization—offering incentives like rate buydowns, and expanding new build options. Zillow recently revised its outlook and projects slightly negative or flat home price growth for 2026, emphasizing the market's local splits.

    Overall, the temporary freeze brought on by rate hikes has given way to a healthier, more balanced market characterized by improved affordability, greater inventory, and less frantic transactions. While housing burdens remain high in some coastal cities, the broader market is showing cautious optimism for measured growth heading into 2026.

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    2 mins
  • US Housing Market Trends: Stabilization, Price Cuts, and Affordability Challenges

    US Housing Market Trends: Stabilization, Price Cuts, and Affordability Challenges
    Nov 25 2025
    The US housing industry has shown increased activity in the past two days, driven by a modest drop in mortgage rates and notable price adjustments by sellers. As of late November 2025, the average fixed rate on a 30-year mortgage sits at approximately 6.2 percent, marking its lowest point in over a year. This decrease has led to a slight boost in both inventory and pending home sales, each rising 5 percent in October according to Zillow data. The improvement in affordability comes at a time when wage growth continues to outpace the increase in housing costs, offering buyers a marginal relief compared to previous months.

    Home price reductions have been especially prominent this fall. Zillow reports that 26.9 percent of listings in October experienced a price cut, with the median cumulative reduction at $25,000—the largest discounts the company has ever recorded. In major metros like Los Angeles, typical listing reductions reached $61,000, though cities such as Oklahoma City and Louisville saw more modest cuts of about $15,000. Despite these discounts, overall home prices in many regions remain elevated, with the median price of a single-family home around $421,000, significantly higher than the $283,000 median seen in January 2020.

    Recent market movements reflect a stabilization in price declines across metro areas. Out of the nation's 300 largest housing markets, 105 saw year-over-year home price drops in October, but this number has stopped increasing as inventory growth stalled. Roughly 35 percent of major markets—especially in the Sun Belt and Mountain West—face mild pullbacks, while the Northeast and Midwest maintain growth thanks to tighter inventories. Furthermore, the lock-in effect, where homeowners hold on to low-rate mortgages, continues to limit listings, though existing home inventory has risen about 30 percent year-over-year.

    First-time buyers now make up only 21 percent of total sales, the lowest share in over four decades. Cash buyers represent 26 percent of transactions, signaling ongoing affordability barriers and a challenging landscape for new entrants. In response, industry leaders are focusing on rental markets and launching promotions to attract buyers, while homebuilders increasingly offer incentives and price cuts in oversupplied regions.

    In summary, the US housing industry is in a period of transition, seeing localized price cuts and slight boosts in affordability, but still facing substantial obstacles for prospective buyers. Compared to last year, market conditions are slowly improving, but remain subdued relative to pre-pandemic norms, with regional disparities and cautious optimism defining the current climate.

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Rebounds with Falling Mortgage Rates and Renewed Buyer Activity [140 characters]

    US Housing Market Rebounds with Falling Mortgage Rates and Renewed Buyer Activity [140 characters]
    Nov 24 2025
    The US housing industry has seen significant changes in the past 48 hours, marked by falling mortgage rates, seasonal inventory shifts, and signs of renewed buyer activity. The rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to approximately 6.13 percent, its lowest point in 2025, helping to stabilize the market after months of volatility. This is a notable decrease from rates that hovered near 7 percent earlier this year.

    Mortgage applications surged 9.2 percent over the most recent week, and refinancing activity rose 12 percent week-over-week, up 34 percent compared to last year. Experts from the Mortgage Bankers Association attributed this to weaker labor market signals and expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates. Lower rates have made home borrowing more attractive, encouraging previously sidelined buyers to re-enter the market.

    Active inventory is another focal point. National housing inventory edged up to just over 860,000 homes last week, but growth appears to be stalling as the holiday season begins. In southern California, inventory is down 19 percent from its summer peak and is expected to dive by about 30 percent through the end of the year as listing activity slows for the holidays. This drop is part of an annual pattern, but this year’s inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels, contributing to continued price pressure.

    The median sale price nationally ticked down to 410,800 dollars in the second quarter, offering a slight reprieve from record highs. However, affordability remains an ongoing challenge due to elevated rates and limited supply. Sellers are currently outpacing buyers at the fastest rate seen in the last decade, as indicated by Redfin’s analyses.

    Industry leaders are responding by prioritizing digital mortgage solutions and streamlining closings to attract buyers who are sensitive to rate shifts and time constraints. Some builders are offering rate buydowns or partnering with lenders to develop creative financing products.

    Comparing current conditions to earlier in 2025, the market is shifting from deep stagnation marked by high rates and low buyer demand, to cautious optimism based on improved borrowing conditions and increased activity, especially in refinancing. The key trends to watch moving forward will be whether the Fed acts to further lower rates and how quickly buyers return after the holiday pause.

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    3 mins
  • "Housing Market Cools: Slower Sales, Rising Inventory, and Affordability Challenges"

    "Housing Market Cools: Slower Sales, Rising Inventory, and Affordability Challenges"
    Nov 21 2025
    The US housing industry this week is seeing a cooler, fragmented market as the year draws to a close. For the first time since 2012, over half of US homes, 53 percent, have lost value in the past year with an average drop of nearly 10 percent. Despite that, overall home prices grew modestly, with the October median hitting an all-time high for that month at $415,200, a 2.1 percent increase over last year. Regionally, sharp declines hit the South and West, while markets in the Midwest and Northeast like Cleveland and Milwaukee saw annual gains above 8 percent.

    A surprise mortgage rate dip to around 6.24 percent in November—the lowest in more than a year—briefly boosted both sellers and buyers. New listings are up 1.7 percent over last year and total inventory has climbed 12.6 percent, now consistently above a million homes for sale for 29 straight weeks. Homes now sit longer, averaging 49 to 64 days on the market, leading sellers to increase price cuts in an effort to move inventory before the holidays.

    National home sales edged up 1.2 percent in October, extending a four-month streak of year-over-year growth and showing signs of buyers returning. However, consumer demand remains highly sensitive to affordability. Even with recent rate relief, the share of household income needed for a mortgage is still near record highs. First-time buyers are nearly absent from the market, while older buyers and repeat purchasers—often using cash or equity—continue to dominate.

    Leaders like Home Depot report weak home improvement sales and cite the housing slowdown and low transaction volumes—just 28 out of every 1,000 homes changed hands so far this year, the lowest since the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, regulatory talk is mostly muted, though policymakers are under pressure to explore new mortgage products as affordability remains a critical barrier.

    Looking ahead, forecasters see flat prices and a sluggish market through early 2026, though potential further rate cuts could unlock pent-up demand. Upward price pressure is muted by rising inventory, but a full rebound in home sales is not expected until the following year. For now, the industry is marked by increasing choice for buyers, more negotiation leverage, and a cautious wait-and-see attitude among both consumers and industry players.

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    3 mins
  • The US Housing Market Shifts to Favor Buyers in Late 2025

    The US Housing Market Shifts to Favor Buyers in Late 2025
    Nov 20 2025
    US Housing Market Analysis - November 20, 2025

    The US housing market is experiencing a significant shift favoring buyers as we enter late November 2025. Interest rates have been gradually easing over the past two months following recent Federal Reserve rate adjustments, with expectations for another potential rate decrease in December. While rate movements have not been perfectly linear, the overall trend shows steady improvement that is encouraging potential buyers to enter the market.

    The most striking feature of the current market is the substantial inventory imbalance. There is currently one of the largest gaps between sellers and buyers seen in decades, with high inventory levels across Texas and much of the nation. Multiple experts are describing this as potentially the best buyer's market in nearly 40 years. This dynamic has dramatically shifted negotiating power toward purchasers, who now enjoy better pricing opportunities, stronger negotiating leverage, and potential concessions from sellers.

    Recent data from September 2025 shows 4.06 million homes were sold at a median price of 415,200 dollars, representing a 2.1 percent year-over-year increase. However, regional variations exist. In some markets, pricing has moderated compared to previous years, with some areas showing pricing 2.3 percent lower than the previous year, roughly 6 percent below typical annual growth rates.

    New listings are showing unexpected strength for this time of year, up 9 percent compared to the previous month and 13 percent year-over-year. This defies typical seasonal patterns where home sales usually decline during the holiday period. Sellers appear motivated by lower interest rates, rushing to list properties before potential rate increases.

    Sales activity has increased modestly as mortgage rates ease. Market experts note that mortgage applications are rising, though not yet reaching normal levels. The relationship between new listings normalization and sales volume remains strong, with markets closer to pre-pandemic listing norms showing sales activity similarly aligned with historical averages.

    For sellers, homes continue moving, though at more realistic price points than experienced two or three years ago. For buyers, the current environment presents significant opportunities with reduced competition and improved purchasing power. As the market transitions into the final weeks of 2025, affordability is improving primarily through price moderation while incomes continue rising.

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Shows Signs of Recovery: Falling Prices, Rising Inventory, and Increased Buyer Demand

    US Housing Market Shows Signs of Recovery: Falling Prices, Rising Inventory, and Increased Buyer Demand
    Nov 18 2025
    In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry is showing early signs of recovery as affordability improves and more consumers re-enter the market. According to the latest Cotality Home Price Insights, home prices nationwide are beginning to sag, with inventory now at its highest level since 2019. After nearly a year of slowdown, home price growth in October ticked up to just under one percent, well below the typical rate seen in average years. Mortgage rates have fallen in recent weeks, prompting a surge in refinancing activity—twice the volume of last year at this time—and attracting more buyers back to the market. Improved affordability in September reached the best levels in two and a half years.

    Market supply is also expanding. Data from Realtor.com reveal that housing inventory is rebounding and approaching levels last seen six years ago. The “lock-in effect,” where homeowners stayed put to avoid losing low mortgage rates, has begun to ease as rates drop, and life events push more people to list their homes. As a result, buyers have more choices and the market is moving toward better balance.

    Demand is up as well. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports purchase applications are rising compared to a year ago, and weekly housing demand has increased by double digits over 2024. However, activity remains moderate compared to the boom periods of the past few years. Economists from the Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecast a double-digit rebound in home sales in 2026, provided that mortgage rates continue to ease and the labor market remains stable.

    Leaders in the housing industry are focusing on creating more flexible mortgage products and targeting previously sidelined first-time buyers. No major new regulatory changes have been enacted in the past week, but industry attention is on how anticipated rate adjustments and inventory gains will affect the upcoming winter and spring seasons. Compared to reporting earlier in 2025, current conditions reflect a more optimistic outlook with restrained but tangible momentum across both supply and demand, marking a clear departure from the stagnation seen earlier this year.

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    2 mins