Episodes

  • Housing Market Stabilizes as Rates Drop Below 6 Percent Amid Winter Recovery

    Housing Market Stabilizes as Rates Drop Below 6 Percent Amid Winter Recovery
    Feb 23 2026
    In the past 48 hours, the US housing market shows signs of stabilization amid winter weather recovery, with mortgage rates easing slightly to 5.997% for 30-year conventional loans as of February 19, down from 6.033% a week earlier.[3] Inventory rose modestly to 690,547 active listings by February 13, up 8.24% year-over-year but below historical norms, while new listings hit 54,324, down from 56,558 last year.[2] Price cuts affected 32.13% of homes, improved from 33% in 2025, signaling buyer sensitivity as demand normalizes post-snowstorms.[2]

    Pending sales totaled 59,469 for the week, slightly below 2025's 60,316, though total pendings grew year-over-year before disruptions.[2] Days on market lengthened in areas like D.C., with mid-range homes lingering 30+ days versus a week previously, due to cold snaps delaying construction and showings.[1] Underwater mortgages climbed to 2.1% nationally, up from 1.3% a year ago.[8] Consumer sentiment dipped to 56.6 in February per Michigan data, reflecting economic caution.[11]

    No major deals, partnerships, or product launches surfaced in the latest reports. Regulatory shifts include D.C.'s RENTAL Act of 2025, effective December 31, easing evictions and notices, with a proposed two-year rent freeze ballot initiative stirring debate.[1] Leaders like sellers are responding by pulling listings or accepting short sales to avoid losses, as seen in D.C. rowhouses selling 14% below ask.[1]

    Compared to early 2026, sales fell 8.4% month-over-month in January, worse than expected, but weekly data now rebounds from weather hits, unlike elevated price cuts earlier.[2][9] Michigan forecasts 3-5% price growth into 2026 amid rising inventory.[5] Overall, high rates near 6% curb activity, but fading disruptions hint at spring upticks if inventory builds seasonally.[2][3]

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Trends: Surging Starts, Slowing Sales Amid Mortgage Rate Fluctuations

    US Housing Market Trends: Surging Starts, Slowing Sales Amid Mortgage Rate Fluctuations
    Feb 20 2026
    US Housing Industry Current State Analysis Past 48 Hours

    In the past 48 hours, reports from the US Census Bureau and Redfin reveal a mixed US housing market, with new construction surging but sales activity stalling amid high mortgage rates around 6 percent.[1][2] Housing starts jumped 6.2 percent in January 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.48 million units, the highest since mid-2025, led by single-family homes at 981000 units and a 10.1 percent rise in multifamily starts.[1] This defies expectations of a winter slowdown, driven by 30-year fixed mortgage rates dipping to 6.01 percent mid-February, the lowest since September 2022, sparking a 183 percent year-over-year surge in refinance applications.[1]

    Contrast this with sluggish demand: Redfin data for the four weeks ending February 15 shows pending home sales down 5.8 percent year-over-year, the biggest drop in a year, with homes taking 67 days to go under contract, longest in seven years.[2] Median sale prices rose 1.1 percent to 379176 dollars, monthly payments at 2601 dollars despite a 2.9 percent dip year-over-year, while new listings fell 3.1 percent and active listings dropped 3.2 percent.[2] NAR confirmed pending sales fell 0.8 percent month-over-month and 0.4 percent year-over-year in January.[3][4]

    Compared to late 2025 gridlock from the lock-in effect and low inventory, January marks a Great Housing Reset, with starts nearing the long-term average of 1.43 million and wage growth outpacing home prices, projected flat at 0 to 1 percent this year.[1] Consumer behavior shows buyers sidelined by costs and winter weather, gaining leverage for concessions in a buyers market.[2] Builders respond by planning missing middle housing like townhomes for affordability, while FHFA monitors supply deficits amid an antitrust probe into major builders.[1]

    No major deals, launches, or regulatory shifts emerged in the past week, but supply chain stability supports the construction boom. Outlook holds cautious optimism if rates stay near 6 percent.[1][5] (298 words)

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    2 mins
  • US Housing Market Steadies Amid New Builds and Lower Rates

    US Housing Market Steadies Amid New Builds and Lower Rates
    Feb 19 2026
    US Housing Industry Current State Analysis Past 48 Hours

    Over the past 48 hours, as of February 18-19 2026, the US housing market shows signs of firming foundations amid steady mortgage rates and surging new construction, contrasting with sluggish existing home sales[1][2][3][4]. Housing starts for January hit 1.48 million annualized units, beating expectations of 1.34 million by 10 percent and up nearly 4 percent from December's 1.404 million, while building permits reached 1.52 million, the highest since early 2024[2][3]. This builder momentum reflects National Association of Home Builders confidence at a two-year high, driven by lower material costs and stabilizing labor, boosting homebuilder stocks and lumber futures[3].

    Mortgage rates dipped to a three-year low of 6.09 percent this week, down from 6.9 percent a year ago, spurring slight refinance upticks and adjustable-rate mortgage preferences, though the lock-in effect keeps existing inventory tight at historically low levels[1][5][7][9]. National home prices rose 3.2 percent year-over-year, with inventory up 5 percent in new listings since January and active listings at 913,000 by late January, nearing pre-pandemic norms[1][5]. Yet existing sales plunged 8.4 percent month-over-month in January to 3.91 million annualized, highlighting persistent buyer caution[4].

    No major deals, partnerships, or regulatory shifts emerged in the last 48 hours, but non-QM lending standards loosened per the Mortgage Credit Availability Index, aiding affordability tests[9]. Consumer behavior shifts toward builder incentives and suburban concessions, with homeowners holding properties longer at 8.6 years average versus 4.2 in 2000[1][9]. Supply chains benefit from construction acceleration, though labor shortages loom for trades like plumbers[3].

    Compared to late 2025 reports of weakening jobs and higher rates, this data signals economic hardening and a soft landing, with single-family starts up 4.1 percent in December to 981,000[2][3][10]. Leaders like builders are responding by ramping permits for spring, bypassing the lock-in via new inventory to meet demand[3]. Overall, optimism builds for a robust 2026 spring despite affordability gaps.

    Word count: 348

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Woes: Builder Confidence Drops Amid Affordability Struggles

    US Housing Market Woes: Builder Confidence Drops Amid Affordability Struggles
    Feb 18 2026
    US Housing Market Analysis: Builder Confidence Continues Decline Amid Affordability Crisis

    The US housing market entered mid-February facing persistent headwinds despite modest improvements in inflation and mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders released its February Housing Market Index on Tuesday, showing builder confidence fell one point to 36, marking the second consecutive month of decline and keeping sentiment well below the neutral 50 threshold that indicates favorable conditions.

    Price-cutting activity among builders decreased slightly in February, with 36 percent of builders reducing prices down from 40 percent in January. This marks the lowest level of price-cutting since May 2025, when it reached 34 percent. However, the average price reduction remained steady at 6 percent. Meanwhile, 65 percent of builders deployed sales incentives such as rate buydowns, unchanged from January and representing the 11th consecutive month above the 60 percent mark.

    Current sales conditions held flat at 41, but forward-looking indicators deteriorated. The index measuring future sales expectations fell three points to 46, while prospective buyer traffic declined two points to 22, suggesting weakening momentum ahead. Regionally, the West experienced the steepest decline, falling two points to 33, while the Northeast dropped one point to 43.

    The fundamental challenge remains housing affordability. The median new home price in the fourth quarter 2025 was $451,128, up marginally 0.3 percent year-over-year. Mortgage rates edged lower to 6.09 percent for the week ending February 12, and inflation declined to 2.4 percent annually through January, the lowest since early 2021. Despite these improvements, affordability metrics continue deteriorating due to compressed builder margins from rising land, labor, and material costs.

    Builders face intensifying pressure from both demand and supply sides. Elevated mortgage rates and home prices have eroded buyer purchasing power, forcing costly concessions to maintain sales. Simultaneously, construction costs and regulatory burdens squeeze profitability. The new construction market is now capturing more price reductions at 19.3 percent versus resale listings at 18 percent.

    Existing home sales declined 8.4 percent in January, indicating builders are capturing market share through aggressive pricing. Remodeling demand has remained solid, with homeowners preferring to renovate existing properties rather than relocate. The critical question facing the industry is whether builder incentives will sufficiently motivate sidelined buyers to enter the market, or if affordability challenges will continue constraining housing demand throughout the spring season.

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Stabilizes Amid Rate Easing and Shifting Buyer Behaviors in 2026

    US Housing Market Stabilizes Amid Rate Easing and Shifting Buyer Behaviors in 2026
    Feb 17 2026
    US Housing Industry Current State Analysis Past 48 Hours

    As of mid-February 2026, the US housing market shows signs of stabilization amid ongoing affordability challenges. Mortgage rates have settled in the low 6 percent range, the lowest in three years, improving affordability for the first time since 2022 as monthly payments drop toward healthier income levels.[1] Home price growth cooled to a 14-year low in 2025, with economists expecting a fresh wave of activity in 2026 as rates ease further.[1]

    Active listings for existing homes rose 10 percent year-over-year in January, marking 27 straight months of inventory gains, though monthly declines reflect seasonal patterns.[2] New listings edged up 0.7 percent year-over-year.[2] A key shift: nearly 20 percent of new homes saw price cuts in Q4 2025, surpassing existing homes at 18 percent, signaling a buyers market especially in the South and West like Texas and Nevada.[3][7] Builders respond with incentives like rate buydowns and credits to counter high inventory of completed homes, making new construction fill affordability gaps resale cannot.[3]

    Consumer behavior adapts as lower rates lure buyers back, potentially adding 5.5 million eligible purchasers per 1 percent rate drop, boosting demand without overheating.[1] Homeowners grow comfortable moving via transition plans and seller credits.[1] Yet long-term unaffordability persists: median home prices surged 217 percent since 2000 versus 153 percent income growth, worsened by rates.[4]

    Compared to late 2025, price reductions hit all-time highs for new homes, flipping from builder strength to responsiveness.[3][7] No major deals, partnerships, or regulatory shifts emerged in the past week, but wage growth outpacing cooled price rises aids balance.[1] Homebuilders face a tough 2026 with excess unsold stock.[2] Overall, stabilization creates opportunities, though sensitivity to rate fluctuations remains high.[1]

    Word count: 298

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    2 mins
  • Navigating the Evolving US Housing Market: A Buyer's Advantage in Mid-February 2026

    Navigating the Evolving US Housing Market: A Buyer's Advantage in Mid-February 2026
    Feb 16 2026
    US Housing Market Shows Buyer-Friendly Shift in Mid-February 2026

    The US housing market is entering a pivotal transition period as of mid-February 2026, marked by easing mortgage rates and strengthening buyer advantages across key regions. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.033 percent as of February 12, 2026, down from 6.098 percent one week prior, representing meaningful relief after months of elevated rates.[5] This downward momentum follows three consecutive Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September 2025, finally delivering relief to homebuyers after rates had peaked near 7 percent in January 2025.[5]

    The Las Vegas market exemplifies this broader shift toward buyers, with inventory surging 25.4 percent year-over-year as of January 2026.[1] Single-family homes now show 4.3 months of supply, crossing the critical 4-month threshold that typically signals buyer advantage.[1] Median listing prices stabilized at 465,000 dollars, down 0.5 percent month-over-month and 2.3 percent year-over-year, creating entry opportunities for first-time buyers and California relocators seeking 2 to 3 times more space at comparable prices.[1]

    However, sales velocity has cooled notably, with Las Vegas home sales plunging 19.8 percent from December 2025 and 8.4 percent year-over-year, extending median time-to-pending to 55 days.[1] This slowdown reflects broader caution among buyers despite improved affordability, partly driven by lingering unemployment effects from 2025's tourism weakness.[1]

    Nationally, the housing supply shortage remains a stabilizing force, with Freddie Mac estimating a 3.8 million unit deficit that has not been closed despite recent construction efforts.[2] Simultaneously, the lock-in effect persists, as roughly 60 percent of outstanding mortgages carry sub-4 percent rates, constraining seller participation.[2] This supply constraint prevents the widespread price collapse some feared, despite rising consumer debt exceeding 1.1 trillion dollars.[2]

    Rental markets show complementary softening, with annual rent increases slowing to 2.8 percent between January 2025 and January 2026, down from 4.2 percent in the prior year.[7] Experts project modest 1 to 3 percent price appreciation in high-demand luxury segments during 2026, while overall prices may flatten or decline if inventory growth continues.[1] The convergence of lower rates, higher inventory, and extended selling timelines creates a distinctly buyer-favorable environment entering spring 2026.

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Slowdown Amid Affordability and Inventory Challenges in 2026

    US Housing Slowdown Amid Affordability and Inventory Challenges in 2026
    Feb 13 2026
    US Housing Industry Current State Analysis Past 48 Hours

    In the past 48 hours, reports confirm a sluggish start to 2026 for the US housing market, with existing-home sales plunging 8.4 percent month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units, the slowest in over two years, and down 4.4 percent year-over-year.[2][4][7] Median existing-home prices hit 396,800 dollars, up 0.9 percent from January 2025, marking 31 straight months of gains, despite low supply of 1.22 million units or 3.7 months supply.[2]

    Mortgage rates eased to around 6.10 percent for 30-year fixed in January, down from 6.96 percent a year ago and near three-year lows at 6.09 percent as of February 12, boosting affordability for the seventh month with NAR's index at 116.5, the best since March 2022, as wages outpace price growth.[2][8] Yet pending sales dropped 5.1 percent year-over-year to 69,060 in the four weeks ending February 8, with declines in all but five major metros, and Redfin's demand index down 6 percent monthly.[3]

    Regional signs vary: Sacramento saw post-Super Bowl spikes in pending contracts on Monday and new listings on Tuesday-Wednesday, hinting at February demand up 25 percent historically before March's 31 percent listing surge, though January closed sales fell 9 percent there.[1] Nationally, harsh January weather muddied trends, with West sales dropping most despite no weather hit, per NAR's Lawrence Yun.[2][4]

    Buyers hold power amid high costs and job worries, but agents note rising tours as payments fell 3.8 percent year-over-year to 2,580 dollars median, urging action before spring competition.[3] No major deals, launches, or regulations emerged in the past week; supply chains show no shifts. Compared to late 2025, Q4 saw 20 percent new-home price cuts versus 18 percent existing, signaling deeper affordability strain now.[9] Leaders like Redfin's Sue Dhillon respond by highlighting buyer leverage, warning delays risk tighter markets as rents climb.[3] Overall, the market awakens slowly, affordability aids but low inventory stalls momentum.

    Word count: 348

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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Stabilizes Amid Easing Rates and Rising Inventory

    US Housing Market Stabilizes Amid Easing Rates and Rising Inventory
    Feb 12 2026
    In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry shows signs of stabilization amid easing mortgage rates and rising inventory, though activity dipped slightly due to weather. Mortgage rates fell to a three-year low of 6.16 percent for 30-year fixed loans as of February 11, down from 6.63 percent in March 2025, driven partly by President Trumps directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy 200 billion dollars in mortgage-backed securities.[9][8]

    Active inventory slipped 1.2 percent week-over-week to 687,697 homes but remains up 8.8 percent year-over-year, signaling more buyer options.[6] In Houston, active listings rose 15.7 percent from January 2025, with homes averaging 66 days on market, the longest since February 2020; total sales fell 2.2 percent year-over-year but pending sales jumped 8.5 percent, indicating sustained demand.[2]

    Multifamily rents grew modestly in top markets like San Jose at 2.8 percent to 3,073 dollars per unit and Minneapolis at 2 percent to 1,497 dollars, buoyed by reduced supply pressures.[1] Single-family rentals hit a seven-year high with a 1.7 percent household increase in 2025.[1] Home prices dipped in half of the 50 largest metros over the past year, especially in Sun Belt areas like Texas, where financial stress prompts investor sales and deflationary trends.[5][9]

    Compared to prior weeks, inventory growth slowed from sharper prior gains, but forecasts predict a buyer-friendly shift in 2026 with 5.2-plus months supply versus 4.7 mid-2025, existing sales up 1.7 percent to 4.13 million, and median prices at 428,000 dollars with 3 percent growth.[3][4]

    Leaders respond with optimism: Realtor.com notes ringing phones from buyers, while builders offer incentives amid a 1.5 to 4 million unit shortage.[7][8] No major deals, partnerships, or regulatory shifts emerged in the last 48 hours, but lower rates spur spring activity despite no imminent Fed cuts.[9] Consumer behavior tilts toward caution in hot markets but quickens on better affordability.

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    3 mins