• How to make trade decisions with confidence due to increasing interest rates

  • Mar 20 2022
  • Length: 6 mins
  • Podcast

How to make trade decisions with confidence due to increasing interest rates

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  • Summary

  • How to make trade decisions with confidence due to increasing interest rates
    1. How the FOMC decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points every six weeks will affect the financial sector.
    2. Last week: the 73% correlation between TLT and rising interest rates.
    3. More details on how you can set up trades that have a high probability of winning due to rising interest rates.

    https://secretedge.us

    What is the math-based top-performing sector?
    1. Health Care, XLV, but it is problematic to trade healthcare now.
    2. Oil stocks are out of sync with Crude Oil.
    3. The issue with trading oil stocks is the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine.

    What is the math-based bottom-performing sector?
    1. Increasing interest rates
    2. Increase 25 basis points each 6-weeks into 2023.
    3. How will we take advantage of this change?
    4. Setting up trades with a high probability of winning.

    The membership website: https://secretedge.us

    Members get the inside story and advanced techniques on trading the top-performing and bottom-performing sectors with low-risk / high return trade methods.

    This weeks math-based analytics reveals:
    1. Remove skewed data from FOMC buying up bonds to keep interest rates low.
    2. Data removed from May 15, 2020, to March 2022.
    3. The improved chart reveals more outliers in the data.
    4. Data includes statistical flyers from the Pandemic market crash of February to March 2020.
    5. Ideal data for trading based on a chart from March 2007 to January 2020.

    Resulting chart and projections
    1. Correlates 69 percent of the data at more than 99% confidence level.
    2. High confidence level that explains about 69% of the data lets us set up trades with a high probability of winning.
    3. Worst-case projections from trendline at the outermost limit.
    4. 30-year mortgage at 4.0 percent:
    5. TLT should be trading much lower at about 122.
    6. Worst-case TLT price would be about 140.
    7. TLT closed at 133.44 on Friday, March 18, 2022.
    8. Are mortgage rates going to rise?
    9. Next week: Thoroughly discuss how to trade TLT with low-risk / high return trade methods.

    What is the condition of the general market?

    Trade data now confirms the market bottom on February 24, 2022. Will the rally continue?

    Conclusion of today's report for the week of March 21 - 25, 2022.
    1. The general market continues sideways with the Russell 2000 in bullish market conditions.
    2. The healthcare sector is in an uptrend, but it is questionable for successful trading.
    3. The Bottom-performing sector with good fundamentals: remains with increasing interest rates.

    https://secretedge.us
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