What does success look like? As Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine enters into its fifth month, it is clear that the military campaign will not end any time soon and that the potential terms of a successful resolution to the conflict are murky. Neither side appears willing, or indeed able, to agree to terms less than victory.

While over half of the world measured by GDP have denounced Russia and/or support Ukraine in this conflict, over half of the world by population have not denounced Russia and take no side in the conflict, other than a desire to see it end. Only four countries – Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, and Syria – voted in support of Russia in the UN General Assembly at the onset of the war.

Now the consequences of war are felt beyond the battlefield, as energy prices soar worldwide and the Russian blockade of Ukrainian grain and fertilizer shipments threatens global food security. In the coming months, millions of additional refugees from Ukraine and other parts of the world are expected to emerge, fleeing conflict as well as economic and food insecurity. Those who succeed in reaching Europe and the United States will put additional stresses on those societies, potentially threatening political and social stability.

Former U.S. Special Representative to Ukraine, Ambassador Kurt Volker joined Wilson Center CEO and Director Ambassador Mark Green in a conversation to review these threats, consider what the West might define as a successful resolution to the conflict, and discuss policy options available to the United States in the coming months.