With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy and markets.

Ryan and Sonu examine how these trends reshape investment opportunities, from skyrocketing mortgage rates—eroding housing affordability—to sector rotations in the S&P 500. They reveal why inflation might be cooling faster than official data suggests, the surprising resilience of consumer strength, and whether the Fed’s cautious “wait-and-see” approach hints at a future policy shift.

Tune in as the duo also explores market dynamics, uncovers the lessons of the 1995 Greenspan era, and discusses how high productivity could provide a unique opportunity for rate cuts without economic stagnation!

Key Highlights:

• Interest Rate Dynamics: Higher mortgage rates (7–8%) squeeze affordability, but construction jobs remain surprisingly steady
• Sector Performance: Financials, energy, and industrials shine as tech and healthcare face setbacks
• Inflation Trends: Real-time data suggests cooling inflation and calming food and grocery prices
• Fed’s Position: Powell’s cautious “wait-and-see” strategy faces criticism for focusing on outdated inflation metrics
• Geopolitical Risks: A strong dollar and global conflicts pressure markets, making diversification essential
• Productivity Gains: High productivity offers hope for wage growth without spiking inflation
• Investment Outlook: Stay diversified and monitor high-growth tech and renewable energy opportunities
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

As the post-election market rally gains momentum, how can investors position themselves for what’s next?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the economic implications of recent election results and a renewed Trump administration.

From anticipated Republican policy shifts—like potential tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit spending—to a bullish outlook for small-cap stocks, Ryan and Sonu examine how these strategies may shape market sentiment in the months ahead. They discuss the impact of a strong dollar on international equities, why gold’s recent dip could offer buying opportunities, and whether bond yields might stabilize following recent increases.

So, tune in as they explore market patterns, highlighting how post-election years often deliver solid performance and explore how non-traditional media, like podcasts, are increasingly shaping election sentiment.

Key Highlights:

• Market Rally: Optimism from GOP policies drives small-cap growth post-election
• Tax and Fiscal Policy: Upcoming tax cuts and spending could spark growth while balancing inflation
• Investment Outlook: Bullish on small caps; bond yields may stabilize
• Gold & Dollar Dynamics: Strong dollar pressures international stocks; gold may be a buying opportunity
• Election Trends: Historically, markets gain momentum after election years
• Shifting Media: Podcasts and new media reshape election sentiment
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

As economic data shows resilience and market expectations shift, how can investors navigate these mixed signals?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director at Employ America, join hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to assess the economy's current strength and potential headwinds.

From surprising 3% GDP growth and possible consumer spending slowdowns to pressures in the housing market driven by high mortgage rates, they discuss why current market optimism might be short-lived. Neil and Skanda also explore how inflation trends, influenced by wage growth and energy prices, could shape future economic stability.

So, tune in as they further explore geopolitical risks, such as fiscal policy changes, and their implications for investors as the 2024 election approaches—offering strategies to stay informed and balanced in uncertain times!

Key Highlights:

• Economic Growth Outlook: The strong 3% GDP growth might not last, with possible Q4 slowdowns stemming from decreased consumer and equipment spending
• Consumer Spending Concerns: Challenges from stagnant real income growth and high mortgage rates could weigh on spending
• Federal Reserve Strategy: A cautious approach to rate cuts, guided by labor cost data, points to measured future actions
• Inflation and Prices: While lower energy costs help curb inflation, core issues persist amidst moderated wage growth
• Market Enthusiasm: Is optimism justified, or are markets overlooking key risks?
• Labor Market Shifts: Slowing job growth may impact consumer-driven economic momentum
• Political Uncertainty: Upcoming fiscal and policy changes may inject volatility into market forecasts and investment strategies
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Neil Dutta:

• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta
• Renaissance Macro Research

Connect with Skanda Amarnath:

• Twitter: Skanda Amarnath
• Employ America