Summary:

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market trends, inflation data, and what’s driving stocks to all-time highs despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and other economic uncertainty.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets at All-Time Highs: Despite concerns about tariffs, inflation, and the Fed, stocks are still hitting record levels, driven by strong earnings and expanding profit margins.
• Rate Cuts Still on the Table: Recent inflation data supports the case for potential Fed rate cuts in 2025, but timing remains uncertain.
• Earnings Strength: S&P 500 earnings are up nearly 17% YoY, with eight of 11 sectors improving profit margins—an encouraging sign for investors.
• Tariffs Delayed: Proposed trade tariffs have been delayed, possibly until August, easing immediate market fears.
• Market Breadth Expanding: More sectors are driving growth beyond just large-cap tech, making the rally more sustainable.
• Inflation Trends: CPI came in hot, but PPI showed signs of easing price pressures, hinting at continued disinflation.
• Momentum Matters: Historically, strong market performance in January and February—like we’ve seen to start 2025—leads to continued gains for the rest of the year.
• Consumer Resilience: While retail sales dipped unexpectedly, seasonal factors and extreme weather likely played a role, rather than fundamental economic weakness.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

#StockMarket #Investing #AllTimeHighs #Inflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #InterestRates #Earnings #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

Summary:

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more!

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 is near an all-time high despite economic concerns.
• Inflation remains a hot topic, with rising egg prices making headlines.
• Momentum is driving market performance, with all 11 S&P sectors in positive territory.
• Housing, auto insurance, and used cars are the primary contributors to inflation stickiness.
• The Fed remains in a cutting bias, but rate cuts may not happen until midyear.
• Trade and tariff policies have the potential for long-term market impacts.
• The possibility of a government shutdown is looming, adding another layer of uncertainty.
• Retail sales took a surprising hit, but that may be due to recent extreme weather and seasonality.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:

#StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #Eggflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #PersonalFinance #CarsonGroup

Summary:
In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.

Key Takeaways:

· Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.

· Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.

· Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.

· Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.

· Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.

· Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.

· Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

· LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

· X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

· LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

· X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:
#StockMarket #Investing #Economy #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Finance #MarketTrends #WealthManagement #Trading #EconomicOutlook