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Macy's is yet another with a warning on the economy just in time for the payroll numbers on February. They were a disaster if hardly anyone saw the true scale of it. Macy's might have a sense, as do other retailers. The data shows there really is big time trouble brewing in the jobs market.

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WSJ Macy’s Expects Sales to Drop Again This Year
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/macys-q4-earnings-results-m-stock-d3da1b6a

CNBC U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html

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Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?

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Politico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spending
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/

Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?
https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdf

Wilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251

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Target issued another warning on the economy and then joined Best Buy as merely the first to say they're raising prices. While that may sound inflationary, it's the opposite and will end up pushing interest rates even lower. Those are already happening in the market, in part as markets more confidently price how the Fed is going to have to follow along, too. Just like last summer.

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Bloomberg Target, Best Buy Warn US Consumers of Tariff Price Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/target-sees-flat-sales-this-year-warns-of-risk-from-tariffs

Bloomberg Traders Pile Into Fed Rate-Cut Bets as Tariffs Roil Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/us-yield-curve-steepens-on-growth-angst-with-tariffs-now-reality

Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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