There are reports that the OBR will downgrade Britain’s productivity growth forecasts, increasing the size of the black hole facing the Chancellor at the end of the month. This continues the spate of bad news for the Chancellor on the economy – but can we trust the figures? James Heale and Michael Simmons join Patrick Gibbons to talk about what this means ahead of the budget, whether anger over the money wasted on asylum hotels can be linked to the cost-of-living crisis and what Rachel Reeves is doing in Saudi Arabia this week.

Plus: is a debate over the customs union really what Britain wants right now?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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With the news that the Home Office has spent billions of taxpayers' money on asylum hotels – and following the accidental release of the Epping sex offender – Tim Shipman and James Heale discuss this most shambolic of government departments. Is it fit for purpose? Can Shabana Mahmood fix the cursed department? And, if not, who will voters turn to instead?

Produced by Megan McElroy and Patrick Gibbons.

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We thought when we organised this podcast that there would just be the newly announced deputy Labour leader to discuss – Lucy Powell beat Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson by 87,407 votes to 73,536. But instead we also have evidence the Prime Minister may have lied to Parliament over the collapse of the China spy case, and there is a manhunt under way to recapture a dangerous criminal released by mistake.

Bad news clearly comes in threes for No. 10: Lucy Powell was not their pick for the job; lying to Parliament is the kind of thing that the ministerial code is quite clear on; and the criminal in question is the Epping migrant hotel sex offender.

Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and the Sunday Times’ Gabriel Pogrund.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

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On the face of it, the Caerphilly by-election result is a disaster, a drubbing and a humiliation for Keir Starmer’s Labour party. A once secure bastion of the Welsh Labour heartlands fell without a squeak from the governing party. Their vote collapsed to a miserable 11 per cent, while Plaid Cymru won with 47 per cent and Reform surged to second place with 36 per cent. The result suggests Labour is on course to surrender a boatload of seats at the 2029 general election, both to Reform and to whatever protest party is best suited to beat the government around the head – be it Plaid, the Greens, the Corbynites, the Islamist independents or the SNP. But is there good news for the PM beyond the headlines?

Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

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With every new poll predicting a Reform win at the next general election, the party continues its preparation for government. James Heale joins Oscar Edmondson and Tim Shipman to talk about his article in the magazine looking at what – or who – is shaping Reform’s intellectual revolution. Cambridge intellectual James Orr, close friend to J.D. Vance, has recently joined as an adviser, following in the footsteps of recent defector Danny Kruger, who was widely seen as an intellectual heavyweight on Conservative benches.

Tim also discusses his piece looking at the narrative Rachel Reeves is trying to set ahead of next month’s budget. Tim says she has four audiences and is trying to direct the blame elsewhere – namely at the Conservatives. But, with no end in sight for Britain’s economic doom loop – and as Farage tries to boost the economic credibility of Reform, could voters start to look elsewhere for some shock medicine?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.

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We’ve just had PMQs, which have become much more interesting now that Kemi Badenoch has got her act together. She led on the Grooming Gangs Inquiry after a fourth survivor quit the inquiry over fears that it’s being watered down. She went as far as to say that the government is in a ‘briefing war against survivors’, and accused Labour of a ‘cover-up’. Nigel Farage attempted to upstage proceedings with his own stunt – he watched from the public gallery to make the point that he isn’t given the chance to defend himself or his party. However, Badenoch’s display meant that his tantrum has gone pretty much unnoticed. Is Kemi on the front foot?

Also today, Starmer’s new go-to girl Louise Casey is back in the news as she joins the inquiry. She has been mooted as a potential successor to Chris Wormald, the Cabinet Secretary. There has been a lot of briefing against Wormald – who was a perplexing pick in the first instance – but if they don’t want him why not ‘sack him … and find him an Oxford college(!)’, as Tim suggests?

Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

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There have been lots of movements in foreign affairs over the weekend, including a potential collapse of the Gaza peace deal, a Trump–Putin bilateral and new revelations about the China spy case. But closer to home, all eyes are on Kent Council, Reform’s flagship administrative project run by Linden Kemkaran (formerly of this parish).

Over the weekend, a Zoom call was leaked to the Guardian, in which council leader Kemkaran used some choice language – many are calling it a Jackie Weaver moment, if you can cast your mind back to 2021. Labour have put out a press release and the Lib Dems are apparently going to capitalise on it with something Traitors-themed, in an attempt to demonstrate that, for all their success in the polls, Reform can’t govern. Will this cut through?

Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman.

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To mark the centenary of Thatcher’s birth, Michael Gove is joined by Charles Moore, her biographer, and Peggy Noonan, speechwriter to Ronald Reagan, to reflect on the chemistry that bound the two conservative leaders. Both outsiders turned reformers, they shared not only ideology but temperament – ‘They were partners in crime,’ says Peggy.

Yet it wasn’t all harmony. As Charles notes, the pair weathered serious rifts – over nuclear weapons, Grenada and the Falklands. Even in disagreement, they ‘wanted the same thing … to defeat the Soviet Union without fighting’. How did they navigate their differences? And what lessons can we learn from their special relationship?

Produced by Natasha Feroze and Oscar Edmondson.

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