As Treasurer Jim Chalmers prepares to hand down his fifth federal budget on 12 May 2026, four of Australia's leading economists gather at the Centre for Independent Studies to ask: is this budget up to the challenge?

Hosted by CIS Executive Director Michael Stutchbury, this roundtable brings together Robert Carling (CIS Senior Fellow, former Treasury and IMF official), Professor Richard Holden (UNSW Business School), and Chris Richardson (Principal, Rich Insight and Australia's most cited budget economist) for a frank, wide-ranging conversation on the fiscal pressures facing Australia.

They discuss rising inflation, a productivity slowdown, a housing crisis, a federal debt approaching $1 trillion, and whether Chalmers' promises on savings, tax reform, and intergenerational equity stack up.

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CIS promotes free choice and individual liberty and the open exchange of ideas. CIS encourages debate among leading academics, politicians, media and the public. We aim to make sure good policy ideas are heard and seriously considered so that Australia can prosper.

As much as anything, the Centre for Independent Studies’ first 50 years has been dedicated to restraining the growth in the size, reach and financing of government to provide room for private enterprise and individual choice.

Now, as in the mid-1970s, the size of government has been ratcheted up. And politicians are increasing taxes to pay for it.

This week, CIS senior fellow Robert Carling has delivered an important corrective to the mantra that taxes aren’t really much of a burden in Australia.

Read more here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/high-taxing-australia-how-we-measure-up/

Grim reality of the NDIS leviathan

“It will start big and get bigger and grow to become the new leviathan of the Australian welfare state,” CIS scholar Andrew Baker further predicted of Labor’s National Disability Insurance Scheme in his 2012 policy monograph. Even the Productivity Commission failed to pick the looming NDIS fiscal disaster from the worthy goal of providing support to permanently and significantly disabled Australians...

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The hard lesson of Australia’s protectionist past is that propping up uncompetitive and high cost industries invariably poses a burden on other sectors, including on the mining, gas and farm exporters that actually support our prosperity.

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Over the past several decades, Australian society has undergone profound economic, social, and cultural change. Education pathways have lengthened, housing costs have far outpaced wages, family formation has been delayed or disrupted, and government intervention has expanded across nearly every stage of life. Public policy has attempted to keep pace with these changes. But there is a growing mismatch between the aspirations young Australians hold and the reality they experience.

This CIS research (https://www.cis.org.au/publication/generation-trapped-housing-handouts-and-the-collapse-of-young-australians-life-satisfaction/) examines the lives, aspirations, values, and perceived barriers of Australians aged 18–34. Drawing on original qualitative interviews using conversational AI and quantitative research conducted by Spectre Strategy on behalf of the Centre for Independent Studies, it finds young Australians do not aspire to radically different lives than previous generations. Financial security, home ownership, meaningful work, family, and children remain core goals. What has changed is the degree to which these goals feel attainable.

👉 Read the research: https://www.cis.org.au/tribes

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Donald Trump’s threats to destroy the ‘whole civilisation’ of Iran this week jarringly contrasted with the out-of-this world American achievement of sending a four-member crew as far from Earth as any humans had gone.

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Australia’s new economic decline is colliding with the breakdown of the liberal rules-based orders for global trade and security. The post-pandemic and oil shock push for more sovereign capability and supply-chain self-reliance will eat into national income just as living standards are under pressure.

Resolving this tension will require more, not less, of the pro-market —or neo-liberal — policy agenda of the Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello era to reboot productivity and economic growth.

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I was in Canberra this week, in part to hear International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol warn that today’s oil price shock will rival the twin Middle East energy shocks of the 1970s.

The 1973 and 1979 shocks promoted using smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles. And it prompted a wave of nuclear energy development in Japan, Europe and North America. Today’s oil price shock will have comparable repercussions, Birol predicts.

Here’s the four take outs I picked up at a National Security College conference, where I was on a panel, and the annual Minerals Council of Australia Minerals Week Conference, where I moderated a session:

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