Episodes

  • Are We Already in World War III? Ukraine, Iran, and the New Global Conflict | Paul Poast

    Are We Already in World War III? Ukraine, Iran, and the New Global Conflict | Paul Poast
    Apr 29 2026
    Are the wars in Ukraine and Iran separate conflicts—or part of something larger? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Paul Poast, Associate Professor at the University of Chicago, to unpack his argument that we may already be living in a new era of “world war.” Rather than a 20th-century style global conflict, Poast explains how today’s wars can be defined by multiple interconnected theaters, where major powers compete indirectly across regions—and where decisions in one conflict shape outcomes in another. Read is NYT OPED: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/opinion/international-world/iran-ukraine-world-war.html The conversation explores: What actually defines a “world war” in today’s context How the wars in Ukraine and Iran are strategically connected Whether U.S. and Russian actions across theaters are a form of great power balancing The role of alliances—and why strained relationships may still hold How munitions shortages, oil markets, and second-order effects shape modern conflict Why policymakers may be “making it up as they go” in a rapidly evolving environment And why in a conflict like this, success may mean finding the least bad outcome, not outright victory This is a wide-ranging discussion on how to think about modern warfare, great power competition, and the risks of escalation in an increasingly interconnected global system.
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    1 hr and 2 mins
  • “NATO Is Dead” — Robert Pape on Iran and the New Power Map

    “NATO Is Dead” — Robert Pape on Iran and the New Power Map
    Apr 28 2026
    This is Part 6 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, we saw renewed efforts to restart negotiations—including a Pakistan-backed diplomatic push—but no meaningful progress. Ceasefires continue to be announced and collapse just as quickly. At the same time, something more significant may be taking shape beneath the surface: 👉 The “third way” between escalation and accepting Iran’s rise may no longer exist. Why recent diplomatic efforts—including talks involving Pakistan—failed to gain traction How Iran may be building a pathway around the blockade through Pakistan, Russia, and Oman What it means for Iran to emerge as a potential “fourth center of world power” Why shifting alliances in the Gulf could reshape the balance of power The concept of a growing power vacuum as U.S. influence declines What escalating coordination between regional and nuclear powers could signal This conflict is no longer just about military escalation. It’s about who fills the power vacuum—and how the global system reorganizes around it. Whether Pakistan deepens its role as a land and economic outlet for Iran Continued coordination between Iran, Russia, and regional partners Any shift from demonstration-level force to direct strikes on infrastructure Signs that Gulf states become direct targets of pressure or instability New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. 🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 What to watch next:🎧 Follow the series:🔗 Follow Robert Pape’s analysis:📡 About the show:
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    42 mins
  • Special Forces Aren’t Ready for Drone Warfare | John Kowalski

    Special Forces Aren’t Ready for Drone Warfare | John Kowalski
    Apr 22 2026
    Drones are already reshaping modern warfare—from Ukraine to the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode, Scott sits down with U.S. Army Special Forces Major John Kowalski to break down what that means for the future of conflict—and whether America is ready for it. Drawing on real-world examples from Ukraine, Iranian-backed proxy forces, and conflicts around the globe, Kowalski argues that unmanned systems are not just another capability—they are fundamentally changing how wars are fought. In some cases, they are already responsible for the majority of casualties and are allowing low-resource actors to punch far above their weight. The question is what comes next. For decades, U.S. Army Special Forces have operated as 12-man teams built around advising and enabling partner forces. But if future conflicts are dominated by drones in the air, on the ground, and at sea, that model may no longer be enough. Kowalski makes the case that Special Forces must adapt—structurally, not just tactically—including the potential need for new roles, new training pipelines, and a fundamental rethink of how teams are organized and deployed. This conversation explores:– Why drone warfare is accelerating faster than most militaries can adapt– How non-state actors are using cheap systems to create strategic effects– What the U.S. is getting right—and where it may still be behind– How Special Forces could evolve to remain relevant in future conflicts If the current trajectory continues, the next major conflict won’t look like Iraq or Afghanistan. It will look very different. And the time to adapt is now.
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    52 mins
  • This Isn’t a Negotiation | Robert Pape on the Iran War

    This Isn’t a Negotiation | Robert Pape on the Iran War
    Apr 21 2026
    This is Part 5 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, multiple ceasefires were announced—and just as quickly fell apart. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran have continued escalating pressure through a de facto blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz. But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more fundamental: 👉 This is not a negotiation. It’s power politics. Why ceasefires and “deals” keep collapsing almost immediately The enforcement problem in international politics—and why agreements don’t hold How both the U.S. and Iran are effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz Why the conflict is shifting toward a longer war dynamic How escalation signals are being used to demonstrate credibility What potential retaliation against U.S. naval forces could look like In international conflict, there is no court to enforce agreements. Every concession can create new vulnerability—and that makes real compromise extremely difficult. Any direct attacks on U.S. naval vessels operating near the blockade line Further escalation tied to strikes on infrastructure (power, bridges) Whether negotiations resume—or continue to break down Signs the conflict is settling into a sustained long-war dynamic New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.
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    32 mins
  • What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke

    What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke
    Apr 15 2026
    What happens if Iran loses control of its global network of proxy groups? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last. They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why dismantling centralized control could actually increase the risk of more fragmented, unpredictable, and violent terrorist activity. The conversation also covers: Why today’s terrorism threat is more decentralized and complex than during the Global War on Terror How terrorist groups are funding themselves through organized crime and global networks The role of private military companies like the Wagner Group in fueling instability Why ISIS and its affiliates remain a persistent global threat How great power competition is intersecting with terrorism in places like the Middle East and Africa The risk of escalation between nuclear-armed states like India and Pakistan This is a practitioner-focused discussion on where terrorism stands today—and what policymakers, operators, and analysts may be missing about what comes next. Colin P. Clarke X/Twitter: @ColinPCarke Soufan Center Intel Brief: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/
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    51 mins
  • No Way Out of the Escalation Trap | Robert Pape on Iran

    No Way Out of the Escalation Trap | Robert Pape on Iran
    Apr 14 2026
    This is Part 4 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments point to a deeper shift in the trajectory of the war: A ceasefire briefly emerged—then collapsed within 24 hours The U.S. and Iran moved toward a full blockade dynamic in the Strait of Hormuz Conflicting signals from the Trump administration on negotiations vs escalation Increasing pressure on global energy markets as disruption intensifies But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more structural: 👉 We are deep in the escalation trap—and there may be no easy off-ramp. Why escalation in this conflict is not linear—and why it appears chaotic in real time The two paths now emerging: accept Iran’s rise or escalate further How control of the Strait of Hormuz could elevate Iran to a new level of global power Why international reaction is not aligning against Iran in the way many expected What a sustained blockade means for global energy markets over the next 30–90 days The specific indicators that would signal further military escalation Conflicts like this don’t just escalate because of battlefield decisions. They escalate because neither side can accept the outcome of stopping. That’s the trap. Early signs of energy shortages as the blockade begins to take effect Any direct attacks on U.S. naval assets in or near the Strait of Hormuz Continued positioning for potential ground operations in the coming weeks New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.
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    31 mins
  • Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t About to Fall (And What Everyone Gets Wrong) | Arash Azizi

    Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t About to Fall (And What Everyone Gets Wrong) | Arash Azizi
    Apr 8 2026
    For years, many in Washington have assumed that pressure, protests, or targeted strikes could trigger regime change in Iran. But what if those assumptions are fundamentally wrong? In this episode, Scott sits down with Arash Azizi, a writer and historian focused on Iranian politics, to break down what’s actually happening inside Iran right now—beyond the headlines. They discuss why the Iranian regime has remained in power despite widespread opposition, how authority is really structured inside the system, and why the lack of a coherent opposition movement may be the single biggest factor shaping Iran’s future. The conversation also explores: Who actually holds power inside Iran today Why leadership decapitation hasn’t led to regime collapse How the current war is impacting internal dynamics What a realistic path to regime change would require Why the next regime in Iran may not be democratic This is a grounded, inside look at Iran’s political reality—and what policymakers, analysts, and the public often get wrong.
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    40 mins
  • The Short War Illusion Is Over | Robert Pape on Iran Escalation

    The Short War Illusion Is Over | Robert Pape on Iran Escalation
    Apr 7 2026
    This is Part 3 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments have shifted the trajectory of the war: U.S. ground forces entered Iran for the first time in a limited rescue operation Continued strikes on energy infrastructure across the region Increasing pressure around the Strait of Hormuz Early indicators of reserve and National Guard mobilization But the most important shift, according to Pape, is this: 👉 The “short war illusion” is over. His article in the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html The expectation that this conflict would remain limited is fading—and that changes how governments, markets, and military planners respond. Why the recent U.S. ground incursion does not yet constitute Stage 3 What defines the transition to full ground operations Why targeting energy infrastructure has repeatedly failed to achieve strategic objectives How civilian harm shapes long-term escalation dynamics The operational indicator that would signal real regime instability Why expectations—not just battlefield outcomes—are now driving the conflict Wars don’t just evolve based on what happens on the battlefield. They evolve based on what people believe is going to happen next. And that shift may already be underway. In the next episode, we examine a deeper question: 👉 Is this conflict changing the global balance of power? Pape argues that Iran may be emerging as a fourth center of world power—a claim that has major implications for how this war unfolds. New episodes released weekly tracking the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict. At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging the gap between theory and real-world decision-making. 🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 Looking ahead:🎧 Follow the series:📡 About the show:
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    38 mins