Episodes

  • "Iran's Supreme Leader Just Called for Attacks on Americans Worldwide" | Robert Pape

    "Iran's Supreme Leader Just Called for Attacks on Americans Worldwide" | Robert Pape
    Jul 13 2026
    The war with Iran is back on, and according to Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago, we are now knocking on the door of the most dangerous stage of the conflict yet. This week, Pape walks through why Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a call for revenge attacks on Americans anywhere in the world, why that statement closely parallels the fatwa issued against Salman Rushdie three decades ago, and why he believes the U.S. and Iran are both boxed into an escalation neither side can easily walk back from. We cover why Pape believes punishment campaigns and the recently failed MOU have left Trump with few remaining off-ramps, why Pape expects the coming wave of violence to be driven by inspired rather than centrally directed attackers, and the historical parallel Pape draws between Trump's current position and Imperial Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. We also discuss why Pape believes a nuclear strike remains unlikely in the near term, and why he has been warning for months that this war could extend well into 2027. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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    32 mins
  • Joe Kent: 'Israel Drove This Decision, Not Us'

    Joe Kent: 'Israel Drove This Decision, Not Us'
    Jul 9 2026
    Joe Kent spent 21 years in Army Special Forces and the CIA before becoming President Trump's Director of the National Counterterrorism Center — then walked away from it, resigning in protest over the war with Iran. This week I sit down with him to talk about what he saw from inside the administration in the weeks before he quit, why he believes Israel drove the decision to strike, and what it actually looks like to try to "coach up" a president who's stopped listening. We get into the collapse of the MOU, whether the US has any leverage left in the Strait of Hormuz, and why he thinks the all-volunteer force has quietly severed the military from the country it defends. We also cover ground most of his interviews haven't: whether some form of compulsory service is the only real check left on endless wars, and whether 2028 opens the door to a genuine third party built around opposition to foreign intervention. Joe Kent: 21 years in Special Operations (75th Ranger Regiment, 5th Special Forces Group), CIA paramilitary officer, and former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. Follow him at x.com/joekent16jan19. At the Water's Edge is a weekly conversation with practitioners and analysts on national security and geopolitics, hosted by a former Green Beret. New episodes every week
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    1 hr and 9 mins
  • Iran's Funeral Just Changed the War | Robert Pape's Warning to Washington

    Iran's Funeral Just Changed the War | Robert Pape's Warning to Washington
    Jul 6 2026
    Just days after President Trump's Fourth of July weekend, Iran held a massive funeral for its slain leadership — and millions turned out. In this week's installment of our ongoing series on the war with Iran, Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence, argues that the funeral marks a turning point that has nothing to do with capability and everything to do with will. Pape lays out his case that four and a half months of decapitation strikes, blockade, and bombing have not broken Iranian public resolve — and why that matters for the ongoing negotiations set for July 11th. We cover Kuwait and Bahrain's complaint to the UN Security Council, why Iran is reportedly turning down financial offers from Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the risk of Washington falling into an "echo chamber" on Iran policy, and why Pape believes pressure could build toward further escalation as soon as August. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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    36 mins
  • Iran Is Not Deterred | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap

    Iran Is Not Deterred | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap
    Jun 29 2026
    This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in real time. After new strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bombing inside Iran, Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and renewed talk of a ceasefire, Pape argues that the conflict is not ending. Instead, we are in the middle game of the escalation trap. That means periods of violence followed by pauses — not a durable ceasefire. Pape explains why Iran has not been deterred by assassination, bombing, blockade pressure, or threats. Instead, Iran may be entering a period of maximum coercive leverage as oil inventories draw down and pressure grows on the global economy. We also discuss Iran’s nuclear trajectory, the risks facing U.S. forces in the Gulf, the role of Lebanon and the Red Sea, Israel’s future security position, and why the timing of Iran’s nuclear decision may depend less on politics and more on feasibility. Why Pape says Iran is not deterred Why this is military action and pause — not a real ceasefire How the war remains in the middle game of the escalation trap Why Iran may continue kinetic pressure in the Strait of Hormuz How oil inventories shape Iran’s coercive leverage Why Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Red Sea matter to Iran’s regional strategy What this means for U.S. forces in the Gulf How Iran’s nuclear calculus may be changing Whether Iran would sprint to a nuclear weapon or wait Why nuclear timing may come down to feasibility, not politics The war did not end. The ceasefire is not holding in any meaningful strategic sense. And Iran may be using this phase of the conflict to increase leverage, pressure U.S. forces, and move closer to the kind of regional power position Pape has warned about throughout this series. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show:
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    30 mins
  • The Future of PTSD Treatment Is Already Here. Why Can’t Veterans Access It?

    The Future of PTSD Treatment Is Already Here. Why Can’t Veterans Access It?
    Jun 25 2026
    In the final episode of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Dr. Jessica Maples Keller of Emory University about the future of psychedelic-assisted therapy for PTSD.Emory has been studying MDMA and psilocybin in a clinical setting, with a focus on how these treatments might enhance evidence-based care like prolonged exposure therapy. Dr. Maples Keller explains how clinical trials are designed, why Schedule I status creates major barriers, what safety screening looks like, and why access and cost may become the next major challenge even if psychedelic-assisted treatments are eventually approved.Then LTG(R) Walt Piatt, CEO of Wounded Warrior Project, returns to close out the series. He reflects on where the veteran community stands in addressing PTSD, what the VA and DoD are getting right and wrong, and whether the innovation happening across nonprofits, universities, and private organizations is a hopeful story about American civil society — or a sign that government systems are still moving too slowly.This episode asks a simple question: if the future of PTSD treatment is already being built, why are so many veterans still waiting?Guests:Dr. Jessica Maples Keller — Associate Professor, Emory University School of MedicineLTG(R) Walt Piatt — CEO, Wounded Warrior ProjectResources:Emory Healthcare Veterans Program:https://www.emoryhealthcare.org/centers-programs/veterans-programFor information about Emory psychedelic-assisted therapy studies:PATstudy@emory.eduMAPS — Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies:https://maps.org/STRONG STAR:https://www.strongstar.org/Compass Pathways:https://compasspathways.com/Heroic Hearts Project:https://heroicheartsproject.org/Oregon Psilocybin Services:https://www.oregon.gov/psilocybinAustralia Therapeutic Goods Administration — MDMA and psilocybin:https://www.tga.gov.au/products/unapproved-therapeutic-goods/mdma-and-psilocybineWounded Warrior Project:https://www.woundedwarriorproject.org/
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    1 hr and 29 mins
  • The Deal Is Signed. The War Isn’t Over. | Robert Pape on Iran

    The Deal Is Signed. The War Isn’t Over. | Robert Pape on Iran
    Jun 22 2026
    This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. The U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding. But according to Pape, that does not mean the war is over. Instead, the battlefield may be shifting to the negotiations themselves. Pape argues that while the U.S. and financial markets may view the agreement through a business-deal lens — oil flows, payments, stability, and costs — Iran may be approaching the negotiations through a balance-of-power lens. The question is not simply what the deal says. The question is whether the deal locks in a new regional balance of power. In this episode, we discuss what the MOU means, why Hormuz remains central, how Iran may use negotiations to gain leverage, what Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy, and why Israel may now face a far more difficult strategic environment. Why a signed deal does not necessarily mean peace How negotiations can become a battlefield of their own Why the business-deal model may miss the real power dynamics How Iran may use the MOU to lock in regional gains Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s leverage What Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy Why Israel may be in deep strategic trouble How the U.S.-Israel relationship could change under pressure What this means for Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states Whether Iran could overreach in the negotiations A deal may stop the immediate shooting. But if the agreement shifts power toward Iran, the conflict may simply be entering a new phase. The war may not be ending. It may be moving to the negotiating table. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show:
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    32 mins
  • Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics | PTSD Part 2

    Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics | PTSD Part 2
    Jun 17 2026
    Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics In part two of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Jesse Gould, founder of the Heroic Hearts Project and a former Army Ranger from the 75th Ranger Regiment, about why some veterans are seeking psychedelic-assisted treatment outside the traditional U.S. medical system. Jesse shares his own story of leaving the military, struggling with PTSD, anxiety, depression, alcohol misuse, and hypervigilance, and eventually traveling to Peru for ayahuasca after feeling that the available treatment options were not enough. That experience led him to launch Heroic Hearts Project, a nonprofit helping veterans access legal psychedelic-assisted programs while emphasizing preparation, safety, screening, and integration. This conversation explores the promise, risk, controversy, and policy questions surrounding psychedelic treatment for veterans. It is not a discussion about miracle cures. It is about what happens when veterans run out of options, why many are looking beyond the VA, and whether the American medical system is ready for what may be coming next. Learn more about Heroic Hearts Project:https://www.heroicheartsproject.org/ Topics discussed: PTSD, veteran mental health, ayahuasca, psilocybin, MDMA-assisted therapy, the VA, alternative treatments, integration, risk mitigation, and the future of psychedelic medicine for veterans. Note: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not medical advice. Anyone considering treatment for PTSD or other mental health conditions should consult qualified medical professionals.
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    52 mins
  • A Deal Doesn’t End This War | Robert Pape on Iran

    A Deal Doesn’t End This War | Robert Pape on Iran
    Jun 15 2026
    This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a deal. But Pape argues that a signing ceremony, memorandum, or public claim of victory does not necessarily mean the war is ending. For frontline U.S. forces in CENTCOM and the Gulf, the real signal is not diplomatic language. The real signal is whether U.S. forces physically leave the region. Until ships, aircraft, Marines, ground forces, tanker support, and carrier groups are actually withdrawn, the escalation trap remains in place. In this episode, we discuss what a possible agreement really means, why the 60-day negotiation window could increase Iran’s leverage, how oil inventories and energy markets affect escalation risk, and why Israel may become more isolated as Gulf states hedge toward Iran. Why a deal does not necessarily mean peace What U.S. forces in the Gulf should actually watch Why physical withdrawal matters more than diplomatic language How the 60-day negotiation window could shape escalation risk Why oil inventories give Iran growing leverage What the agreement could mean for Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah Whether Gulf states are hedging or bandwagoning toward Iran Why the Abraham Accords framework may be in trouble How the conflict could reshape nuclear deterrence debates in the region A deal is not the off-ramp unless the force posture changes. If U.S. forces remain in the Gulf, the war is not over. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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    34 mins