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What a week! Two major events have overturned Australia’s security outlook dramatically for the worse. The first is the US throwing Ukraine under the bus and siding with Russia. What has been done to Ukraine is an absolute disgrace and it can be done to Australia – and don’t think for a moment it couldn’t happen. The attempt to extort 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals for equipment already supplied is outrageous. But our political leaders are completely mute about US conduct, so terrified of uttering a single word that might upset the Trump administration. It is moral cowardice at its worst. We are on our own – and the UK has pulled the plug on AUKUS. To add to that we have had Chinese warships operating in the Tasman Sea as a blatant show of force. It was inevitable that this would happen at some point. Australian Defence planners need to stop obsessing with the South China Sea and worry about places much closer to home.

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The instability and unpredictability of the Trump administration continues – and that should have alarm bells ringing for Australian Defence planners. The US is no longer a reliable ally as is being demonstrated by threats to take Greenland from NATO member Denmark and the unnecessary imposition of tariffs on friendly nations such as Australia. It looks like Ukraine will be thrown under a bus, which should alarm all Australians in case China’s President Xi thinks he can get away with invading Taiwan. A bit more about the completely corrosive nature of Defence secrecy and the alarming evidence that the Chief of Army can be overruled by a 20-something staffer in a Ministerial office. Finally, some thoughts on technologies – and we should be investing heavily in home-grown drones. We don’t need to import a single one – there’s plenty of talent here.

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• We start with some thoughts about the big international story of the moment, the idea from US President Donald Trump that all Palestinians be removed from Gaza so that it can be redeveloped as a luxury waterfront enclave. This does not seem a particularly good idea as President Trump has not yet explained where the 2 million Palestinians will go, or who will pay for the redevelopment. All that the mealy-mouthed Australian government will say is that it remains in favour of a Two State solution, a line echoed by the Opposition. This seems to overlook the fact that one of those states – Israel – is no longer interested in that approach and as well as having Palestinians kicked out of Gaza would like them kicked out of the West Bank as well. Australia has just handed over $800 million as a gift to very profitable US submarine manufacturers with another $4.2 billion to follow – and the media thinks it’s a wonderful idea. Some more words about the visit to HQ Joint Operations Command and the very valuable work being done there coordinating ADF operations both in Australia and internationally. Finally, the SEA 3000 secrecy stupidity shows no signs of abating.

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• We discuss several recent momentous events, including the inauguration of President Donald Trump. This has been followed immediately by various disruptions, such as the US slapping 25% tariffs on allies Canada and Mexico, with only 10% levied on the enemy China, which seems an odd way of going about things. Trump has also threatened to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal and turn Canada into the 51st state. These challenges to the international order have received widespread condemnation – but not from Australia because our politicians are too scared to say anything that might upset the Americans. And the government wonders why its popularity is sinking. The secrecy around SEA 3000 continues, with a team of probity staff scrutinising the media like Victorian era sensors trying to find references to breasts and buttocks – and this ridiculous exercise by Defence is costing we taxpayers millions of dollars per year in stupidity. Finally good news – a media visit to HQ Joint Operations Command, with more about this in the next podcast.

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In this episode we have a look at some more details of the upgraded Mogami frigate and shed more light on how screwed up the process is for SEA 3000. It is shrouded in secrecy because Defence and the government don’t want you to know how little analysis has been done for a strategically vital multi billion dollar procurement. Why does the first ship have to be in the water in 2029? Why not 2028 – or 2030? Then Defence and the highly paid surface fleet review team don’t understand that the only ship Japan can sell to Australia is the upgraded Mogami FFM – not the one currently in service – because you can’t offer something no longer in production. If Japan can offer a variant of the Mogami, can Germany offer a larger variant of the MEKO 200 called the A210? If they can’t then prime contractor tkMS should quit the competition now and save themselves millions of Euro. We look at President-elect Donald Trump’s territorial ambitions and pose the question: if he asks for Australian military assistance for the invasions of Greenland, Canada and Panama will we give it? Presumably the answer from the Defence establishment will be in the affirmative, so completely dazzled as they are by AUKUS.

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This is a slightly delayed podcast, mainly about SEA 3000 and Japan’s offer of an upgraded Mogami class frigate. For background, here is a link to a more detailed article in APDR: https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/mogami-frigate-fast-and-stealthy-like-a-ninja/. The frigates are very impressive with a number of advanced, stealthy features such as an integrated communications mast and a dramatic reduction in radar cross section. They have a small crew of 90 for peacetime operations based on high levels of automation and also changes to how the ship is operated – and does the RAN have the flexibility to make necessary changes in processes, particularly with regard to training? Previous experience suggests they will struggle – and they probably don’t even know what they are getting themselves into. Given the recent dismal record of the RAN in cancelling SEA 1000; destroying SEA 1180; and scrapping SEA 1905, it's a contract Japan might regret winning. And some nasty rumours about the competitor Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems are already circulating in the RAN – and this sort of destructive nonsense has to be stamped out. Finally a few words about biscuits.

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Before we resume discussing the US media tour, we see that Collins class submarine sustainment has been put on the government’s Projects of Concern list. ASC, the company responsible, is legally owned by the Minister for Finance, so it’s one Minister putting another on notice. When you add the review into the Australian Submarine Agency to the mix it seems there are problems with the entire submarine enterprise – but a mere two months ago the Chief of Navy criticised the media for being too negative. Next, vertical launch missile systems and the Lockheed Martin Mk 70 that holds Harpoon and SM-6 could easily go on the Arafura OPVs – an idea so good it will be totally ignored by the RAN. Finally, we visited Sikorsky in Stratford, the Lockheed Martin company building the UH-60M Black Hawk, currently being delivered to Australia. This is an excellent, reliable helicopter that will be easier for the Australian Army to maintain – especially with the money that they are throwing at it. Does it justify the decision to destroy the Taipan helicopter fleet? Of course not.

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