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The Theory That Would Not Die

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

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The Theory That Would Not Die

By: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Narrated by: Laural Merlington
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About this listen

Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.

In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers and listeners, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security.

Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

©2011 Sharon Bertsch McGrayne (P)2012 Tantor
History Mathematics World Submarine France

Critic Reviews

"If you are not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be." ( New York Times Book Review)

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Excellent review of statistics as well as Bayes

Very comprehensive with enough character details to be entertaining as well as informative. Don’t read it for a detailed analysis or description of the mathematics involved but there is some in appendix b

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An engaging account of subjectivist probability

A well researched popular account of the figures central to the rise of subjectivist probability in business, science, and the military. This is a weaving path through many fields, united by a preference on the part of the motley group of practitioners for using priors, more elaborated probability models, and Bayesian decision theory. The audiobook was delivered with clear narration and brought character to the work, enriching the story.

My single frustration was with the level of detail provided: often some of the descriptions of statistical models and techniques were vague, where additional details would have made for a more complete account of the work undertaken—and provided substance to claims about the novelty and ingenuity of the work itself. There is the occasional misrepresentation about some aspect of probability (particularly in what frequentist statistics can and cannot do), but these are not egregious and are usually just due to minor omissions of qualifying statements.

A recommended book for anyone who wants to hear about the contest of ideas at the boundary between mathematical formalism and uncertainty. In particular, I would recommend this book for those who work employs statistical inference to provide more context (and motivation and excitement) for the structure of the field today.

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Great book poorly read

Very good book almost ruined by a poor reading performance. Puts into context many historical events.

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