Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting
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Narrated by:
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Joel Richards
About this listen
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.What listeners say about Superforecasting
Average Customer RatingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Zishan Xu
- 17-06-2020
engaging. interesting. erudite
Well written and easily accessible, superforcasters provides many gems of wisdom that can be applied to any field.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Amazon Customer
- 21-08-2020
Improved angles for predicting new outcomes!.
I bought this audio-book just because I was bored, really... I mean; a system to predict future events? Can anyone do that?
Is it an art? However, I will never regret listen to this audio-book. I paid the price I paid, but I got a lot back in a tenfold!.
Now, if I had to sell acres of my land, like Don Quixote did to get this book ... It is a 100% probability that I would!.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Nenad
- 25-08-2022
Transformational
The start to the book was a touch esoteric but as it progressed, I felt the core of forecasting was so elegantly synthesised into accessible chunks of knowledge that a risk or strategy practitioner could readily apply in their every day thinking. the principles of forecasting are as applicable to a household as they are to a trillion dollar business. This book is one of the most important listens for anyone even remotely serious about doing risk management properly.
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Overall4 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Cedric Hodges
- 12-05-2018
Well worth a listen
This book provides a great balance between deep concepts and helpful anecdotes and stories. I'd recommend to anyone interested in economics or data science.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Icarus
- 13-01-2023
This is one of those books that change your thinking
Before listening to this book, I hadn’t realised how easily we fall prey to wonky predictions made by supposedly knowledgeable people who often don’t measure the accuracy of their forecasts, which are very vague to begin with!
The book also sheds some light on how people can emulate the superforecasters by breaking down big questions into small ones and by testing their assumptions.
Everyone should read this book. The benefits of good forecasting are felt everywhere in our modern society.
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Overall4 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story4 out of 5 stars
- Galahadoc
- 04-05-2019
Came recommended, would recommend to others.
I never felt wholly engaged and always carried doubts that the information about the Super Forecasters 'could' have been cherry picked - for example if this was written at year 3 and one of the main people discussed bombed out at this point he could have been dropped to discuss someone that didn't bomb - Bill might have previously been George. Even with these doubts in mind I still thought the general lessons were great and appreciated the simple descriptions to complex ideas.
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1 person found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- gary Fallon
- 03-09-2019
Insights into the disclipined mind of forecasting.
A summary of some very hard long term research into understanding decision bias. Then using these understandings to critically review a question on the future. Break it down and provide a rational prediction. A good read.
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Overall2 out of 5 stars
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Performance2 out of 5 stars
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Story2 out of 5 stars
- Prophetmines
- 22-02-2018
Of little value
What would have made Superforecasting better?
It's not a very strong argument compared to say kahneman and tversky.
What could Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have done to make this a more enjoyable book for you?
I don't think it adds enough value to be a book.
How did the narrator detract from the book?
The writing was dull so I suppose the narrator didn't have much to work with.
What reaction did this book spark in you? Anger, sadness, disappointment?
I wonder how much money has been wasted funding this academic folly
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2 people found this helpful
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Overall3 out of 5 stars
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Performance3 out of 5 stars
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Story2 out of 5 stars
- Nicholas Mason
- 20-02-2024
The epilogue was the best part
Overall good, but 2-3x as long as it needs to be. Lots of waffling & irrelevant story telling
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Overall1 out of 5 stars
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Performance3 out of 5 stars
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Story1 out of 5 stars
- Anonymous User
- 14-11-2024
Not useful
Too much irrelevant content. The content was missing useful ckear and direct information. The first half in particular has minimal value.
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